248 S Paseo Aguila -- Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1964 $375/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting villa, situated in one of Green Valley's most sought-after 55+ communities. This residence embodies Southwest charm and offers a comfortable living experience. It provides an ideal blend of coziness, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Whether utilized as a seasonal retreat or a year-round residence, this charming villa is poised to be your new home. Additionally, it is conveniently located near shopping centers, grocery stores, and various dining options. The furnishings will remain with the property, and parking available in front of the home. Retirement , relax, and enjoy..... The monthly HOA fee covers the community pool, water, sewer, trash pickup, and exterior maintenance, which includes roof, doors, exterior painting, landscaping, HVAC, and water heater. With simple living, you'll have more time to explore and take advantage of all the activities that Green Valley Recreation has to offer! Why rent when you can have your own Villa!

Key facts

• $375 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; HOA fee covers roof repair and replacement, sewer, grounds maintenance, street maintenance, HVAC, trash and water, plus other items

Exterior

• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse (attached); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and brick exterior; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One possible bedroom
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,132
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $20,227
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.06mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.06mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.11mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.14mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.19mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	17d	1	0.28mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	17d	1	0.28mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.30mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.30mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	14d	1	0.38mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.44mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingexterior maint.pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    price $95,000

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting villa, situated in one of Green Valley's most sought-after 55+ communities. This residence embodies Southwest charm and offers a comfortable living experience. It provides an ideal blend of coziness, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Whether utilized as a seasonal retreat or a year-round residence, this charming villa is poised to be your new home. Additionally, it is conveniently located near shopping centers, grocery stores, and various dining options. The furnishings will remain with the property, and parking available in front of the home. Retirement , relax, and enjoy..... The monthly HOA fee covers the community pool, water, sewer, trash pickup, and exterior maintenance, which includes roof, doors, exterior painting, landscaping, HVAC, and water heater. With simple living, you'll have more time to explore and take advantage of all the activities that Green Valley Recreation has to offer! Why rent when you can have your own Villa!

15. 2026-03-25
    price $95,000 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting villa, situated in one of Green Valley's most sought-after 55+ communities. This residence embodies Southwest charm and offers a comfortable living experience. It provides an ideal blend of coziness, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Whether utilized as a seasonal retreat or a year-round residence, this charming villa is poised to be your new home. Additionally, it is conveniently located near shopping centers, grocery stores, and various dining options. The furnishings will remain with the property, and parking available in front of the home. Retirement , relax, and enjoy..... The monthly HOA fee covers the community pool, water, sewer, trash pickup, and exterior maintenance, which includes roof, doors, exterior painting, landscaping, HVAC, and water heater. With simple living, you'll have more time to explore and take advantage of all the activities that Green Valley Recreation has to offer! Why rent when you can have your own Villa!

16. 2025-12-01
    status Active 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting villa, situated in one of Green Valley's most sought-after 55+ communities. This residence embodies Southwest charm and offers a comfortable living experience. It provides an ideal blend of coziness, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Whether utilized as a seasonal retreat or a year-round residence, this charming villa is poised to be your new home. Additionally, it is conveniently located near shopping centers, grocery stores, and various dining options. The furnishings will remain with the property, and parking available in front of the home. Retirement , relax, and enjoy..... The monthly HOA fee covers the community pool, water, sewer, trash pickup, and exterior maintenance, which includes roof, doors, exterior painting, landscaping, HVAC, and water heater. With simple living, you'll have more time to explore and take advantage of all the activities that Green Valley Recreation has to offer! Why rent when you can have your own Villa!

17. 2025-12-01
    listed $95,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting villa, situated in one of Green Valley's most sought-after 55+ communities. This residence embodies Southwest charm and offers a comfortable living experience. It provides an ideal blend of coziness, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Whether utilized as a seasonal retreat or a year-round residence, this charming villa is poised to be your new home. Additionally, it is conveniently located near shopping centers, grocery stores, and various dining options. The furnishings will remain with the property, and parking available in front of the home. Retirement , relax, and enjoy..... The monthly HOA fee covers the community pool, water, sewer, trash pickup, and exterior maintenance, which includes roof, doors, exterior painting, landscaping, HVAC, and water heater. With simple living, you'll have more time to explore and take advantage of all the activities that Green Valley Recreation has to offer! Why rent when you can have your own Villa!

18. 2025-11-18
    historical 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting villa, situated in one of Green Valley's most sought-after 55+ communities. This residence embodies Southwest charm and offers a comfortable living experience. It provides an ideal blend of coziness, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Whether utilized as a seasonal retreat or a year-round residence, this charming villa is poised to be your new home. Additionally, it is conveniently located near shopping centers, grocery stores, and various dining options. The furnishings will remain with the property, and parking available in front of the home. Retirement , relax, and enjoy..... The monthly HOA fee covers the community pool, water, sewer, trash pickup, and exterior maintenance, which includes roof, doors, exterior painting, landscaping, HVAC, and water heater. With simple living, you'll have more time to explore and take advantage of all the activities that Green Valley Recreation has to offer! Why rent when you can have your own Villa!

19. 2025-11-18
    listed $95,900 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting villa, situated in one of Green Valley's most sought-after 55+ communities. This residence embodies Southwest charm and offers a comfortable living experience. It provides an ideal blend of coziness, convenience, and resort-style amenities. Whether utilized as a seasonal retreat or a year-round residence, this charming villa is poised to be your new home. Additionally, it is conveniently located near shopping centers, grocery stores, and various dining options. The furnishings will remain with the property, and parking available in front of the home. Retirement , relax, and enjoy..... The monthly HOA fee covers the community pool, water, sewer, trash pickup, and exterior maintenance, which includes roof, doors, exterior painting, landscaping, HVAC, and water heater. With simple living, you'll have more time to explore and take advantage of all the activities that Green Valley Recreation has to offer! Why rent when you can have your own Villa!

20. 2023-09-21
    historical
21. 2023-08-04
    listed $130,000 Active
22. 2019-10-10
    soldstatus $77,000 Closed
23. 2019-10-10
    soldstatus $77,000
24. 2019-09-03
    status Pending
25. 2019-07-16
    price $80,000
26. 2019-05-08
    listed $82,500 Active
27. 2018-04-21
    historical
28. 2018-04-01
    listed $53,500 Active
29. 2016-09-08
    soldstatus $33,000 Closed
30. 2016-09-08
    soldstatus $33,000
31. 2011-01-13
    soldstatus $27,000
32. 2010-09-27
    listed $29,900
33. 2009-05-21
    soldstatus $42,688
34. 2009-05-15
    soldstatus $42,866
35. 2009-01-19
    listed $49,900
36. 2002-02-07
    soldstatus $27,500
37. 1984-05-01
    soldstatus $25,527
38. 1982-05-01
    soldstatus $31,700
39. 1980-10-01
    soldstatus $32,000
40. 1978-12-01
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $510 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$86
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $1,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+251.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-01 Listed $95,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $95,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-04 Listed $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-10 Sold (MLS) $77,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-09-03 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2019-07-16 Price Changed $80,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-05-08 Listed $82,500 MLSSAZ
• 2018-04-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2018-04-01 Listed $53,500 MLSSAZ
• 2016-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-08 Sold (MLS) $33,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-01-13 Sold (MLS) $27,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-09-27 Listed $29,900 MLSSAZ
• 2009-05-21 Sold (MLS) $42,688 MLSSAZ
• 2009-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $42,866 Public Records
• 2009-01-19 Listed $49,900 MLSSAZ
• 2002-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,527 Public Records
• 1982-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,700 Public Records
• 1980-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1978-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $510 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.