16808 N 1st Ave #39 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$25,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 1976 ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bed 2 bath mobile home is a great value! Located in a desirable location near dining and shopping with community pool, golf, shuffleboard, and clubhouse.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $1,100 monthly; Association maintains grounds and streets; Rules restrict visible trucks, trailers, RVs, boats; Community amenities: pool, golf, heated community spa, biking/walking paths, fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; Separate storage area; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Fixer condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Private maintained road; East/West exposure; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in electric oven; Pantry; Laminate counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Floor furnace; Wall furnace; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Pantry; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Laminate counters; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 64.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 64.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 206.73%
• DSCR: 10.20
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16811 N 1st Ave #48	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$20,000	$14	86
16804 N 2nd Dr #156	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$67,000	$47	86
16809 N 1st Ave #47	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$22,000	$15	81
16607 N 3rd Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$100,000	$74	76
16602 N 2nd Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$59,900	$45	73
16805 N 1st Dr #22	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	16mo	$43,500	$28	72
16821 1st Ave N #53	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$32,000	$26	63
16813 N 3rd Ave #235	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-14%)	15mo	$64,900	$53	55
312 E Charleston Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	11mo	$235,000	$158	45
33 E Libby St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,233 (-14%)	10mo	$335,000	$272	34
405 E Charleston Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+7%)	22mo	$190,000	$124	32
221 E Michelle Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+13%)	17mo	$325,000	$200	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.67×
• Total profit: $67,668
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.74×
• Total profit: $138,167
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $1,206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,223	-5% $1,215	+0% $1,206	+5% $1,197	+10% $1,189
Rent	-10% $1,068	-5% $1,137	+0% $1,206	+5% $1,275	+10% $1,344
Rate	-1.0pp $1,219	-0.5pp $1,212	base $1,206	+0.5pp $1,199	+1.0pp $1,193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	1d	11	0.09mi
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	1d	1	0.13mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,649	$1.68	24d	1	0.14mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,419	$2.16	2d	33	0.21mi
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,564	$1.45	2d	32	0.21mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,455	$1.68	1d	8	0.22mi
118 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	0.32mi
415 W Aire Libre Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,100	$1.30	17d	1	0.34mi
229 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,100	$1.67	8d	1	0.39mi
17420 N 2nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,000	$1.52	22d	1	0.42mi
314 E Hartford Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,195	$1.66	24d	1	0.43mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,708	$1.93	1d	35	0.47mi
313 W Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,550	$1.48	1d	1	0.55mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,437	$1.86	2d	25	0.65mi
15822 N 5th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,400	$1.54	1d	1	0.67mi
17646 N 6th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,200	$1.71	4d	1	0.70mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,518	$1.59	2d	37	0.73mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	4d	7	0.83mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	44d	1	0.88mi
18207 N 5th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,300	$1.39	8d	1	0.88mi
815 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1469	$2,800	$1.91	5d	2	0.95mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,822	$1.85	2d	26	1.02mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	19d	1	1.03mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	11d	1	1.03mi
1028 E Paradise Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1624	$2,195	$1.35	24d	1	1.04mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	2d	35	1.06mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$2,500	$2.75	24d	2	1.07mi
16875 N 12th St #24 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,200	$1.27	8d	1	1.10mi
16875 N 12th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,600	$1.48	12d	1	1.10mi
17228 N 16th Dr #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	21d	1	1.14mi
16875 N 12th St Unit 17 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1323	$2,200	$1.66	24d	1	1.17mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	2d	21	1.18mi
17416 N 13th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,295	$1.24	22d	1	1.20mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	2d	12	1.20mi
1413 W Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,850	$1.20	22d	1	1.20mi
1305 W Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,300	$1.64	18d	1	1.22mi
1126 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1214	$2,450	$2.02	4d	1	1.28mi
524 W Rosemonte Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	1.30mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	20d	1	1.30mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	8d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $25,000 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $25,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $25,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-05-20
   price $25,000
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $14,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,591
• After-tax cash flow: $10,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $25,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $29,900 ARMLS