3130 Great Oak St · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$113,500

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 248 Days on market

Built 1990 4,122 sqft lot Est $102k · 11% over $217/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why pay rent when you can own your home for only $70,000. With some paint and a little tender loving care, you can make this charming one bedroom, one bath home your very own "home sweet home. " You'll be able to enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle in Timber Lake Estates where the minimal monthly fee includes access to 2 clubhouses and a heated community pool / spa. The monthly fee also includes grass cutting, water, sewer & trash pickup. For recreation there's a basketball court, shuffleboard, a playground, billiards, a community library and a deck that extends out into the lake for catch & release fishing and a 24-hour security guard. PLUS, there's an RV lot available for use at no charge for homeowners which is a huge advantage for part-time winter residents.

Key facts

• Private community
• Attached bonus room
• Additional storage

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• PRIVATE COMMUNITY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ATTACHED BONUS ROOM
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condo land included; Furnished status negotiable
• Financial info: Total annual fees $2,604; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Qualified Property Management, Inc.; Monthly HOA fee of $217; fee required and association approval required; HOA covers common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Community features include clubhouse, gated access, pool, spa/hot tub, shuffleboard court, wheelchair access, deed restrictions, buyer approval required; Pets allowed with restrictions (breed restrictions, cats and dogs allowed, number limit)

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected; Water source: Well (see remarks); Sewer: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces west; Completed condition; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Inside utility; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $785 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $114k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,920
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34251 Lodge Dr	0.20mi	1/1.0	600 (+7%)	19mo	$109,000	$182	59
34649 Petunia Pl	0.58mi	1/1.0	552 (-1%)	10mo	$63,000	$114	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,384
• Equity at exit: $16,923

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,345
• Equity at exit: $9,813

Cash invested: $31,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$595
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,168/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $113,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,375
• Closing costs: $3,405
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	14d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $113,500 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $113,500 Active 247 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $113,500 Active 246 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $113,500 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $113,500 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $113,500 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $113,500 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $113,500 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $113,500 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $113,500 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $113,500 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $113,500 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $113,500 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    price $113,500
15. 2026-04-03
    price $115,000
16. 2026-02-14
    price $117,900
17. 2026-02-14
    price $11,700
18. 2026-01-30
    status Active
19. 2026-01-28
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-13
    price $119,900
21. 2025-10-10
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 2022-12-01
    historical 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Why pay rent when you can own your home for only $70,000. With some paint and a little tender loving care, you can make this charming one bedroom, one bath home your very own "home sweet home. " You'll be able to enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle in Timber Lake Estates where the minimal monthly fee includes access to 2 clubhouses and a heated community pool / spa. The monthly fee also includes grass cutting, water, sewer & trash pickup. For recreation there's a basketball court, shuffleboard, a playground, billiards, a community library and a deck that extends out into the lake for catch & release fishing and a 24-hour security guard. PLUS, there's an RV lot available for use at no charge for homeowners which is a huge advantage for part-time winter residents.

24. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Why pay rent when you can own your home for only $70,000. With some paint and a little tender loving care, you can make this charming one bedroom, one bath home your very own "home sweet home. " You'll be able to enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle in Timber Lake Estates where the minimal monthly fee includes access to 2 clubhouses and a heated community pool / spa. The monthly fee also includes grass cutting, water, sewer & trash pickup. For recreation there's a basketball court, shuffleboard, a playground, billiards, a community library and a deck that extends out into the lake for catch & release fishing and a 24-hour security guard. PLUS, there's an RV lot available for use at no charge for homeowners which is a huge advantage for part-time winter residents.

25. 2022-09-02
    status Pending 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Why pay rent when you can own your home for only $70,000. With some paint and a little tender loving care, you can make this charming one bedroom, one bath home your very own "home sweet home. " You'll be able to enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle in Timber Lake Estates where the minimal monthly fee includes access to 2 clubhouses and a heated community pool / spa. The monthly fee also includes grass cutting, water, sewer & trash pickup. For recreation there's a basketball court, shuffleboard, a playground, billiards, a community library and a deck that extends out into the lake for catch & release fishing and a 24-hour security guard. PLUS, there's an RV lot available for use at no charge for homeowners which is a huge advantage for part-time winter residents.

26. 2022-08-01
    status Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Why pay rent when you can own your home for only $70,000. With some paint and a little tender loving care, you can make this charming one bedroom, one bath home your very own "home sweet home. " You'll be able to enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle in Timber Lake Estates where the minimal monthly fee includes access to 2 clubhouses and a heated community pool / spa. The monthly fee also includes grass cutting, water, sewer & trash pickup. For recreation there's a basketball court, shuffleboard, a playground, billiards, a community library and a deck that extends out into the lake for catch & release fishing and a 24-hour security guard. PLUS, there's an RV lot available for use at no charge for homeowners which is a huge advantage for part-time winter residents.

27. 2022-08-01
    price $70,000 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Why pay rent when you can own your home for only $70,000. With some paint and a little tender loving care, you can make this charming one bedroom, one bath home your very own "home sweet home. " You'll be able to enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle in Timber Lake Estates where the minimal monthly fee includes access to 2 clubhouses and a heated community pool / spa. The monthly fee also includes grass cutting, water, sewer & trash pickup. For recreation there's a basketball court, shuffleboard, a playground, billiards, a community library and a deck that extends out into the lake for catch & release fishing and a 24-hour security guard. PLUS, there's an RV lot available for use at no charge for homeowners which is a huge advantage for part-time winter residents.

28. 2022-06-06
    listed $80,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Why pay rent when you can own your home for only $70,000. With some paint and a little tender loving care, you can make this charming one bedroom, one bath home your very own "home sweet home. " You'll be able to enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle in Timber Lake Estates where the minimal monthly fee includes access to 2 clubhouses and a heated community pool / spa. The monthly fee also includes grass cutting, water, sewer & trash pickup. For recreation there's a basketball court, shuffleboard, a playground, billiards, a community library and a deck that extends out into the lake for catch & release fishing and a 24-hour security guard. PLUS, there's an RV lot available for use at no charge for homeowners which is a huge advantage for part-time winter residents.

29. 2013-07-08
    soldstatus $18,500 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    GREAT FOR STARTER HOME: Or rental investment. Updated floor coverings, enclosed porch on one off the back of the carport is perfect for extra sitting room, hobbies or just storage, cute and cozy in great community with easy Tampa commute. No age restriction in this community and for recreation there are 2 pools and 2 clubhouses. Pets ok with some restrictions. Close to conveniences including Publix, Home Depot, gym, eateries and Wiregrass Town Center.

30. 2013-04-18
    listed $24,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    GREAT FOR STARTER HOME: Or rental investment. Updated floor coverings, enclosed porch on one off the back of the carport is perfect for extra sitting room, hobbies or just storage, cute and cozy in great community with easy Tampa commute. No age restriction in this community and for recreation there are 2 pools and 2 clubhouses. Pets ok with some restrictions. Close to conveniences including Publix, Home Depot, gym, eateries and Wiregrass Town Center.

31. 2007-12-04
    listed $39,900
32. 2007-01-09
    soldstatus $33,000
33. 2006-10-03
    listed $39,900
34. 1999-04-09
    soldstatus $15,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,358
• − Property taxes: −$1,168
• − Insurance: −$568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$3,302
• Taxable income: $1,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$256
• After-tax cash flow: $2,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+622.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $113,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $117,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $11,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-06 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-08 Sold (MLS) $18,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-18 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-04 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-09 Sold (MLS) $33,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-03 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $15,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,168 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.