52 Center St · Holbrook, NY 11779

$649,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1959 0.32 ac lot Est $716k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large Expanded 4 Bed Cape In Ronkonkoma For $649,000. Beautiful 1/3 Of An Acre Corner Property With 2 Car Detached Garage & Finished Basement With OSE! Situated On A Quiet Interior Street, This Home Has Lots Of Space! A Rare Find Of Over 1,900 Sq Ft With 2 Extensions Including A Den With Fireplace & Formal Dining Room With French Doors To Trex Deck & Patio. Boasting A Large Attic Over The Den Extension That Could Be Finished Into Additional Living Space. A Great Place To Call Home!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Finished basement
• Den with fireplace

Tags

• CORNER PROPERTY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• QUIET INTERIOR STREET
• DEN WITH FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Finished basement; Unfinished attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-815 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $505k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (38.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $397k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Holbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 603 students, 36% FRL); Samoset Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 892 students, 31% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 174 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,593 (38.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.38%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $715,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Alan St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,852 (-3%)	6mo	$695,000	$375	79
36 Brian St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-7%)	2mo	$760,000	$428	75
2 Richard Pl	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,830 (-4%)	5mo	$714,000	$390	71
25 Windham Ln	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,925 (+1%)	1mo	$630,000	$327	66
6 Center St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+5%)	7mo	$665,000	$333	64
110 Geery Ave	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,800 (-6%)	10mo	$750,000	$417	62
22 Hollo Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+8%)	8mo	$730,000	$354	53
9 Jamar Ln	0.70mi	4/1.5	1,836 (-4%)	9mo	$690,000	$376	52
39 & 41 Foster Rd	0.53mi	5/3.5 (+1)	1,800 (-6%)	4mo	$1,225,000	$681	51
3 Maison Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,071 (+8%)	4mo	$725,000	$350	50
116B Holbrook Rd	0.71mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,062 (+8%)	2mo	$760,000	$369	47
150 Coates Ave N	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,134 (+12%)	9mo	$690,000	$323	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-165,969
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-246,327
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,290/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $-815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,997

Max offer price $505,038

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-448	-5% $-631	+0% $-815	+5% $-999	+10% $-1,182
Rent	-10% $-1,128	-5% $-972	+0% $-815	+5% $-658	+10% $-502
Rate	-1.0pp $-488	-0.5pp $-650	base $-815	+0.5pp $-983	+1.0pp $-1,154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,009	$5.22	0d	130	1.29mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $649,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 492-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $649,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,290 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,129 · $594/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,839/yr (+$320/mo · 116.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$3,290
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,807
• − Management: −$3,807
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$21,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,230
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 26,667
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,290 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.