200 Nohea Kai Dr Unit 2-UP 51-52 · Lahaina, HI 96761

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · Timeshare · 167 Days on market

Built 2014 4.00 ac lot $152/sqft · 64% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 2/52 undivided interest fee simple deed for apartment number 4122 at the Hyatt Vacation Club Maui on Ka'anapali Beach with fixed time usage rights for weeks 51 and 52 every year. These usage rights entitle the owner to a guaranteed reservation for the 14 consecutive nights checking in on a Saturday and checking out on a Saturday that includes Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve. The owner shall also have exclusive rights to reserve and then use and occupy any 2BR/2BA unit on floors 9-12 (floor request is first come first serve with the other 33 2BR Upper Level owners). There are are a total of 34 2BR units on floors 9-12 all with Ocean Views (see unit mix photo). First year of occupancy is 2026 with a reservation for 12/19/26 - 1/2/27. Price does not include 2026 HOA dues of approx. $8,590.68 already paid by Seller and to be reimbursed by Buyer at close of escrow. Sleeps 7 guests. All utilites, property taxes and reserves for regular remodel and refurnishing cycles included in HOA dues. No resort fees. All parking is by valet which is complimentary. Daily housekeeping a la carte. Master Bedroom - King Size bed with lanai access and adjoining bathroom with two vanities, stand up shower, stand alone tub and private water closet. Second Primary Bedroom - Queen-size bed plus loveseat with twin-size pullout and adjoining bathroom includes one vanity and shower/tub combo. Queen-size convertible sofa sleeper in living room. Flat screen smart TVs in all rooms. Full kitchen with Bosch appliances, J.A. Henckel cutlery and CaesarStone countertop with three bar stools. Dining room table seats six. Ceiling-to-floor accordian glass doors open up the entire living area to the lanai space with spectacular views of the Ocean and Lahaina. Lanai includes table, four chairs and a day bed. Washer and Dryer in closet next to the kitchen.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Washer and dryer
• 4 acre lot

Tags

• EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS TO RESERVE
• COMPLIMENTARY VALET PARKING
• FULL KITCHEN
• WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 1.2% in Lahaina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#47 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,025/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.51%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,091
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 64.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $94,561
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $253,228
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 637
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $1,876

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,000	-5% $1,938	+0% $1,876	+5% $1,814	+10% $1,753
Rent	-10% $1,558	-5% $1,717	+0% $1,876	+5% $2,035	+10% $2,194
Rate	-1.0pp $1,966	-0.5pp $1,922	base $1,876	+0.5pp $1,830	+1.0pp $1,783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Wahikuli Rd Lahaina, HI	2.0	1.0	850	$2,800	$3.29	22d	1	1.25mi
50 Puu Anoano St #1701 Lahaina, HI	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,500	$3.67	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2025-12-31
    listed $179,000 Active 1869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1869 chars)

    This is a 2/52 undivided interest fee simple deed for apartment number 4122 at the Hyatt Vacation Club Maui on Ka'anapali Beach with fixed time usage rights for weeks 51 and 52 every year. These usage rights entitle the owner to a guaranteed reservation for the 14 consecutive nights checking in on a Saturday and checking out on a Saturday that includes Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve. The owner shall also have exclusive rights to reserve and then use and occupy any 2BR/2BA unit on floors 9-12 (floor request is first come first serve with the other 33 2BR Upper Level owners). There are are a total of 34 2BR units on floors 9-12 all with Ocean Views (see unit mix photo). First year of occupancy is 2026 with a reservation for 12/19/26 - 1/2/27. Price does not include 2026 HOA dues of approx. $8,590.68 already paid by Seller and to be reimbursed by Buyer at close of escrow. Sleeps 7 guests. All utilites, property taxes and reserves for regular remodel and refurnishing cycles included in HOA dues. No resort fees. All parking is by valet which is complimentary. Daily housekeeping a la carte. Master Bedroom - King Size bed with lanai access and adjoining bathroom with two vanities, stand up shower, stand alone tub and private water closet. Second Primary Bedroom - Queen-size bed plus loveseat with twin-size pullout and adjoining bathroom includes one vanity and shower/tub combo. Queen-size convertible sofa sleeper in living room. Flat screen smart TVs in all rooms. Full kitchen with Bosch appliances, J.A. Henckel cutlery and CaesarStone countertop with three bar stools. Dining room table seats six. Ceiling-to-floor accordian glass doors open up the entire living area to the lanai space with spectacular views of the Ocean and Lahaina. Lanai includes table, four chairs and a day bed. Washer and Dryer in closet next to the kitchen.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$1,692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,864
• − Management: −$3,864
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $20,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,030
• After-tax cash flow: $17,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Lahaina

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #12432

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lahaina, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• City population: 20,952
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Listed $179,000 RAM MLS