200 Mullen St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1953 7,080 sqft lot Est $250k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 200 Mullen St, located in a highly desirable area of Tonawanda. This ranch-style home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath with a practical, single level layout. The property is situated directly across the street from a grade school, providing convenient access for families and contributing to consistent neighborhood appeal. The home includes a one car attached garage and presents an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a fixer-upper or renovation project. The roof is 5 years old. With solid potential and a sought after location, this property is well suited for owner occupants or investors looking to add value. A great opportunity to own in Tonawanda and make this home your ow

Key facts

• 7,080 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Tags

• ONE CAR ATTACHED GARAGE
• SOUGHT AFTER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.20%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,404
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
299 Newell Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,103 (+2%)	2mo	$255,299	$231	83
157 Newell Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,131 (+4%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	74
53 Winkler Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-2%)	2mo	$210,000	$198	68
18 Joseph Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+1%)	3mo	$295,000	$269	67
205 Bannard Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	999 (-8%)	8mo	$186,500	$187	66
346 Maldiner Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	999 (-8%)	9mo	$280,000	$280	65
236 Newell Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	999 (-8%)	16mo	$237,000	$237	64
30 Bannard Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-5%)	2mo	$220,000	$213	63
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,108 (+2%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	58
128 Bannard Ave	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (-10%)	6mo	$168,500	$173	55
29 Bonnett Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-2%)	13mo	$262,000	$246	52
81 Winkler Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,212 (+12%)	6mo	$257,500	$212	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,985
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $71,567
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,750/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $476	-5% $434	+0% $392	+5% $349	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $245	-5% $318	+0% $392	+5% $465	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $430	base $392	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	2d	9	0.52mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	0.59mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	4d	1	1.17mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	2d	1	1.26mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	2d	35	1.33mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	2d	1	1.38mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-28
   status Active
3. 2026-01-26
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-13
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,750 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,750 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,750
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$598
• After-tax cash flow: $4,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-26 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,750 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.