189 Michigan Hollow Rd · Spencer, NY 14883

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 7,040 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1970 24 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an inventor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that's hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

Key facts

• Storage
• Wooded acres
• Stream

Tags

• 24 ACRES
• WOODED ACRES
• STREAM
• WAREHOUSE WITH LIVING QUARTERS
• LARGE BARN
• STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Spencer-Van Etten Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #405 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $191,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.57%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $209,961
• Equity at exit: $189,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.25×
• Total profit: $543,675
• Equity at exit: $407,984

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14883

• Home prices YoY: 12.9%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,805/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$843
• Net cashflow: $1,498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 58%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1.5	$4,014
Total (3 units)			$4,013

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    price $227,000 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an investor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities here are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

18. 2026-03-26
    price $227,000 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an investor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities here are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

19. 2026-03-21
    status Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an investor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities here are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

20. 2026-03-21
    status Active 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an investor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities here are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

21. 2026-03-13
    historical Active Under Contract 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an inventor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that's hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

22. 2026-03-13
    historical Active Under Contract 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an inventor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that's hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

23. 2026-03-05
    listed $239,000 Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an inventor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that's hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

24. 2026-03-04
    listed $239,000 Active 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    24 acres of opportunity in Spencer, NY. This one-of-a-kind property offers a rare combination of acreage, versatility, and potential. Set on 24 wooded acres with a stream running through the land, the property features a 5,000+ sq ft warehouse with living quarters, three single-wide structures, and a large barn full of character. All structures will require renovation and cleanup, but the layout and existing improvements create a compelling canvas for the right buyer. Whether you're an investor, contractor, entrepreneur, or simply someone with vision, this property offers flexibility that’s hard to find at this price point. With space for storage, workshop use, equipment, or a future compound-style setup, the possibilities here are wide open. The value lies in the land, the square footage, and the opportunity to reimagine the property to suit your needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,805 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,805 · $484/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$5,805
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,852
• − Management: −$3,852
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $15,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,774
• After-tax cash flow: $14,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer-Van Etten Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,456
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3389
• State rank: #405 of 590 in NY

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,525

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,155 people
• By 2030: 42,801 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 37,960 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 33,071 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 24,144 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 16,545 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.9) · D 38.6% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -22.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.9 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.53%
• Current HPI: 301.4985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $227,000 IBRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $227,000 IBRMLS
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $239,000 IBRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $239,000 IBRMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,805 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.