408 Broadway St · Harlan, IA 51537

$135,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1890 10,454 sqft lot Est $211k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful 1 story home is ready for its next owners. Located close to Historic Downtown Harlan, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers ample space and storage throughout all three levels. On the main level you'll find a spacious eat-in kitchen, the primary bedroom, living room, a full bathroom, and a functional laundry room that could be a office space or potential 4th bedroom. The upper level offers ample storage and could be a fun kids hangout space or ANOTHER private bedroom if you choose. The basement has a sizeable living space as well as 2 conforming bedrooms, a full bathroom with a double sink vanity, and laundry can be moved back to the basement as well. The tankless water heat

Key facts

• Sump pump
• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FUNCTIONAL LAUNDRY ROOM
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• RADON MITIGATION SYSTEM
• WATERPROOFED BASEMENT
• SUMP PUMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.24 acres (88 x 120); Residential single-family zoning; Wood siding

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Finished basement (approximately 500 below-grade finished area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Harlan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#79 in IA, #1,656 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan Community School District (town): math 72% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #81 of 289 in IA (top 28%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Harlan Primary (369 students, 44% FRL); Harlan Community Middle School (math 70% / reading 81%, grade A, #65 of 246 statewide, top 29%, 342 students, 36% FRL); Harlan High School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A-, #34 of 336 statewide, top 14%, 477 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $135k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,552
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Broadway St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,698 (0%)	1mo	$135,200	$80	91
805 Baldwin St	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,694 (-0%)	9mo	$234,900	$139	57
1012 Main St	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,608 (-5%)	14mo	$199,000	$124	51
908 Farnam St	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,728 (+2%)	14mo	$210,000	$122	47
401 Market St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,583 (-7%)	11mo	$135,000	$85	44
1008 Baldwin St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,717 (+1%)	11mo	$70,000	$41	43
207 Court St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-6%)	20mo	$245,000	$154	38
1203 Durant St	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,544 (-9%)	11mo	$192,000	$124	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,275
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,821
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51537

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,544/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,130

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $205	+0% $167	+5% $128	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $114	+0% $167	+5% $219	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $201	base $167	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Gary Scull Dr Unit 12-405 Harlan, IA	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,400	$0.81	46d	1	0.35mi
611 Gary Scull Dr Unit 10-305 Harlan, IA	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,282	$0.74	46d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Active
3. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-30
   status Active
5. 2026-03-27
   listed $135,000 Active
6. 2021-08-13
   soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,544
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1913500
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,557
• Composite: 62.95/100
• National rank: #656
• State rank: #81 of 289 in IA

Livability — Harlan

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlan, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,480

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,637 people
• By 2030: 11,472 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 11,146 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 10,791 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 10,601 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 10,338 · -11.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+40.3 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.04%
• Current HPI: 209.5911
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+110.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — IAR
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-04-04 Pending — IAR
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $135,000 IAR
• 2021-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,544 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.