401 Webb Church Rd · Ellenboro, NC 28040

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Other · 57 Days on market

Built 1999 0.58 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and full of potential, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with a possible 3rd bedroom, office, or study offers flexibility and value in one package. Situated on over half an acre within the Ellenboro city limits, this property provides a peaceful setting with trees lining the backyard while still being conveniently located between Forest City and Shelby. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with updated laminate and vinyl flooring, along with two renovated full bathrooms. The home has seen important improvements over the years, including central heating and air updated in 2013, plumbing updates beneath the home, and the septic system pumped last year. A handicap-accessible ramp a

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.58 acres
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Main level garage (attached or accessible at main level); Has garage; No additional parking features listed
• Utilities: City water; Septic system installed
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; One story; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Aluminum exterior construction
• Exterior features: Gravel and concrete road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet; One total room (studio-style/efficiency layout implied)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in common area / in hall / in kitchen / inside on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#407 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ellenboro Elementary School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #459 of 1,410 statewide, top 33%, 595 students, 99% FRL); East Rutherford High School (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C-, #270 of 535 statewide, top 52%, 659 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.34%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $16,591
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $54,478
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28040

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $182/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $90,000 Active
17. 2025-07-11
    price $80,000
18. 2025-06-26
    price $87,777
19. 2025-06-12
    listed $99,000 Active
20. 2019-09-08
    price $45,000
21. 2019-08-10
    price $50,000
22. 2019-05-02
    price $52,600
23. 2019-04-06
    price $53,000
24. 2019-04-06
    price $5,300
25. 2019-03-14
    price $53,500
26. 2019-02-14
    price $54,000
27. 2018-10-19
    price $54,700
28. 2018-05-11
    price $54,775

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $182 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 304.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$182
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $4,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rutherford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704080
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,490
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #4753
• State rank: #98 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ellenboro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #15416

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenboro, NC
• Population (ZIP): 7,047

Population outlook (Rutherford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,695 people
• By 2030: 61,670 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 57,212 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 52,763 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 44,493 · -30.1%
• By 2100: 38,127 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutherford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.8 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.84%
• Current HPI: 274.2615
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+64.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $90,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $80,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $87,777 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Listed $99,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-08 Price Changed $45,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-10 Price Changed $50,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-02 Price Changed $52,600 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-06 Price Changed $53,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-06 Price Changed $5,300 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-14 Price Changed $53,500 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Price Changed $54,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-19 Price Changed $54,700 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-11 Price Changed $54,775 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $182 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.