45 Stimpson Ave · Castleton-on-Hudson, NY 12033

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1939 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FIX & FLIP. Nice area, potential galore. Great schools, Needs major renovation. Selling AS IS! Assignment of contract, cash (bank check) buyers only. Do all inspections before making offer. 10% deposit required.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1939

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at 45 Stimpson Ave, Castleton on Hudson, NY

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area approximately 770; Lot dimensions approximately 53 x 102 x 83 x 98; Main road frontage about 53 feet
• Construction: Foundation: Combination; Construction materials: Other; Roof: Other
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Other exterior features; Level, landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: Other)
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Wood and ceramic tile flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.5% in Castleton-on-Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Schodack Central School District (rural): math 59% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #216 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $100k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.16%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,860
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Seaman Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	880 (+14%)	4mo	$280,000	$318	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $24,199
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $73,257
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12033

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,249/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $953

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $690	-5% $661	+0% $633	+5% $605	+10% $577
Rent	-10% $494	-5% $564	+0% $633	+5% $702	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $683	-0.5pp $659	base $633	+0.5pp $607	+1.0pp $581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 214-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,249
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $6,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,544
• After-tax cash flow: $6,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schodack Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626070
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $73,695
• Composite: 52.93/100
• National rank: #1530
• State rank: #216 of 590 in NY

Livability — Castleton-on-Hudson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castleton-on-Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,772

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.57%
• Current HPI: 306.386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+307.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $99,900 Global MLS
• 2019-09-25 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-09-25 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-08-28 Listed $43,900 Global MLS
• 1998-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,249 · -17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.