28806 Golden Wheat Ct · Houston, TX 77447

$229,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Beckman Floor Plan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Lovely dining area
• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LOVELY DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: CCMC; Annual association fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $229,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,234.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1790 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,113 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.68%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,234
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -22.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16114 Domestic Dove Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,318 (0%)	2mo	$286,990	$218	92
16846 Spotted Oak Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+0%)	0mo	$220,090	$166	68
16823 Old Wagon Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+0%)	4mo	$260,990	$197	66
16834 Old Wagon Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+0%)	4mo	$260,990	$197	66
16854 Old Wagon Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+0%)	2mo	$261,990	$198	65
28530 Golden Hay Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+7%)	1mo	$263,990	$187	56
16831 Old Wagon Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+7%)	4mo	$263,990	$187	55
16847 Old Wagon Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+7%)	3mo	$263,990	$187	55
16859 Spotted Oak Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+11%)	1mo	$270,990	$185	50
16827 Old Wagon Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	2mo	$278,990	$189	49
16814 Old Wagon Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	4mo	$278,990	$189	48
16842 Old Wagon Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	3mo	$276,990	$188	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-79,416
• Equity at exit: $44,169

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-126,115
• Equity at exit: $25,613

Cash invested: $82,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1790
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,553
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,444/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,718

Max offer price $239,437

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-188	-5% $-290	+0% $-393	+5% $-495	+10% $-597
Rent	-10% $-568	-5% $-480	+0% $-393	+5% $-305	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-317	base $-393	+0.5pp $-469	+1.0pp $-547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,059
• Closing costs: $8,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 567-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   price $229,990 567-char remark
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $234,990 Active 567-char remark
4. 2026-04-24
   historical
5. 2026-04-23
   price $234,990
6. 2026-04-16
   price $245,990
7. 2026-04-09
   price $249,990
8. 2026-04-07
   price $271,290
9. 2026-04-02
   listed $263,090 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,594
• − Property taxes: −$4,444
• − Insurance: −$1,481
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,618
• Taxable loss: −$9,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,387
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior, with a good foundation and structure. The home has a good roof and windows, and the HVAC system appears to be in good condition. The home has a good curb appeal and landscaping. The home has a good rehab level of cosmetic and would benefit from some updates to the exterior and interior to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $245,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $271,290 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $263,090 HARMLS