1512 W Skyline Dr · Pine Ridge, FL 34434

$284,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,829 sqft · Land · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 10,048 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern Comfort & Quality Craftsmanship – 4BR/2BA St Augustine Floor Plan by Christopher Alan Homes. Up to 15k in closing costs! Open-concept design with a modern kitchen that includes quarts countertops, stainless steel appliances and large center island overlooks great room. Triple sliders leading out to a large covered lanai allows natural light to flow throughout main living areas with wood plank tile and soft carpet in the bedrooms. Owner’s suite boasts dual closets and en-suite bath with dual vanities and walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Additional features include a dedicated laundry room, spacious 2-car garage, and durable, energy-efficient construction with hurricane impact-resistant low E windows and hurricane impact doors for added peace of mind. Christopher Alan Homes delivers the perfect blend of style, quality, and affordability. Winning multiple accolades in the Southwest Florida region, Christopher Alan is bringing style, comfort and quality craftmanship to Citrus Springs in an affordable price range with multiple floorplans to suit your needs. Schedule an in person tour now to see the new updates and other floor plans available!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• Covered lanai

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• COVERED LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1247 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $284k implies a 2061% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,842 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-68,226
• Equity at exit: $42,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-87,813
• Equity at exit: $24,598

Cash invested: $79,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,492
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,268/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $234,164

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-250	+0% $-348	+5% $-446	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-429	+0% $-348	+5% $-267	+10% $-186
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-276	base $-348	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,125
• Closing costs: $8,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1482 W Manchester Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,695	$1.10	23d	1	0.49mi
6251 W Whispering Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,815	$1.12	23d	1	0.53mi
7175 N Varsity Ave Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,795	$1.26	23d	1	0.64mi
669 W Homeway Loop Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,895	$1.20	23d	1	0.66mi
788 W Glenhaven Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1621	$1,800	$1.11	23d	1	0.75mi
2117 W Swanson Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,850	$1.17	23d	1	0.77mi
1301 N Galgano St Dunnellon, FL	4.0	3.0	2381	$2,800	$1.18	23d	1	0.89mi
7708 N Paris Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	23d	1	0.95mi
1912 W Quaker Ln Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,895	$1.16	23d	1	1.02mi
7908 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1551	$1,850	$1.19	23d	1	1.16mi
2195 W Tall Oaks Dr Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,200	$1.30	23d	1	1.24mi
8030 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	23d	1	1.28mi
7047 N Lime Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-02-26
   status Pending 1276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

   Modern Comfort & Quality Craftsmanship – 4BR/2BA St Augustine Floor Plan by Christopher Alan Homes. Up to 15k in closing costs! Open-concept design with a modern kitchen that includes quarts countertops, stainless steel appliances and large center island overlooks great room. Triple sliders leading out to a large covered lanai allows natural light to flow throughout main living areas with wood plank tile and soft carpet in the bedrooms. Owner’s suite boasts dual closets and en-suite bath with dual vanities and walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Additional features include a dedicated laundry room, spacious 2-car garage, and durable, energy-efficient construction with hurricane impact-resistant low E windows and hurricane impact doors for added peace of mind. Christopher Alan Homes delivers the perfect blend of style, quality, and affordability. Winning multiple accolades in the Southwest Florida region, Christopher Alan is bringing style, comfort and quality craftmanship to Citrus Springs in an affordable price range with multiple floorplans to suit your needs. Schedule an in person tour now to see the new updates and other floor plans available!

2. 2026-02-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

   Modern Comfort & Quality Craftsmanship – 4BR/2BA St Augustine Floor Plan by Christopher Alan Homes. Up to 15k in closing costs! Open-concept design with a modern kitchen that includes quarts countertops, stainless steel appliances and large center island overlooks great room. Triple sliders leading out to a large covered lanai allows natural light to flow throughout main living areas with wood plank tile and soft carpet in the bedrooms. Owner’s suite boasts dual closets and en-suite bath with dual vanities and walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Additional features include a dedicated laundry room, spacious 2-car garage, and durable, energy-efficient construction with hurricane impact-resistant low E windows and hurricane impact doors for added peace of mind. Christopher Alan Homes delivers the perfect blend of style, quality, and affordability. Winning multiple accolades in the Southwest Florida region, Christopher Alan is bringing style, comfort and quality craftmanship to Citrus Springs in an affordable price range with multiple floorplans to suit your needs. Schedule an in person tour now to see the new updates and other floor plans available!

3. 2026-01-13
   listed $284,500 Active 1276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

   Modern Comfort & Quality Craftsmanship – 4BR/2BA St Augustine Floor Plan by Christopher Alan Homes. Up to 15k in closing costs! Open-concept design with a modern kitchen that includes quarts countertops, stainless steel appliances and large center island overlooks great room. Triple sliders leading out to a large covered lanai allows natural light to flow throughout main living areas with wood plank tile and soft carpet in the bedrooms. Owner’s suite boasts dual closets and en-suite bath with dual vanities and walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Additional features include a dedicated laundry room, spacious 2-car garage, and durable, energy-efficient construction with hurricane impact-resistant low E windows and hurricane impact doors for added peace of mind. Christopher Alan Homes delivers the perfect blend of style, quality, and affordability. Winning multiple accolades in the Southwest Florida region, Christopher Alan is bringing style, comfort and quality craftmanship to Citrus Springs in an affordable price range with multiple floorplans to suit your needs. Schedule an in person tour now to see the new updates and other floor plans available!

4. 2026-01-13
   listed $284,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (1276 chars)

   Modern Comfort & Quality Craftsmanship – 4BR/2BA St Augustine Floor Plan by Christopher Alan Homes. Up to 15k in closing costs! Open-concept design with a modern kitchen that includes quarts countertops, stainless steel appliances and large center island overlooks great room. Triple sliders leading out to a large covered lanai allows natural light to flow throughout main living areas with wood plank tile and soft carpet in the bedrooms. Owner’s suite boasts dual closets and en-suite bath with dual vanities and walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Additional features include a dedicated laundry room, spacious 2-car garage, and durable, energy-efficient construction with hurricane impact-resistant low E windows and hurricane impact doors for added peace of mind. Christopher Alan Homes delivers the perfect blend of style, quality, and affordability. Winning multiple accolades in the Southwest Florida region, Christopher Alan is bringing style, comfort and quality craftmanship to Citrus Springs in an affordable price range with multiple floorplans to suit your needs. Schedule an in person tour now to see the new updates and other floor plans available!

5. 2024-07-09
   soldstatus $13,167 Closed 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   2 buildable lots side by side, creating a total of . 56 acres perfect for your new home with a bit more privacy OR build 1 home on each lot for family/investment. A great location in a growing community of new and existing construction - homes only. A quick commute to Downtown Dunnellon, the Rainbow Springs State Park and the Rainbow River offering tons of outdoor activities and amenities to enjoy.

6. 2024-07-09
   soldstatus $39,500

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   2 buildable lots side by side, creating a total of . 56 acres perfect for your new home with a bit more privacy OR build 1 home on each lot for family/investment. A great location in a growing community of new and existing construction - homes only. A quick commute to Downtown Dunnellon, the Rainbow Springs State Park and the Rainbow River offering tons of outdoor activities and amenities to enjoy.

7. 2024-06-04
   status Pending 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   2 buildable lots side by side, creating a total of . 56 acres perfect for your new home with a bit more privacy OR build 1 home on each lot for family/investment. A great location in a growing community of new and existing construction - homes only. A quick commute to Downtown Dunnellon, the Rainbow Springs State Park and the Rainbow River offering tons of outdoor activities and amenities to enjoy.

8. 2024-03-29
   listed $25,000 Active 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   2 buildable lots side by side, creating a total of . 56 acres perfect for your new home with a bit more privacy OR build 1 home on each lot for family/investment. A great location in a growing community of new and existing construction - homes only. A quick commute to Downtown Dunnellon, the Rainbow Springs State Park and the Rainbow River offering tons of outdoor activities and amenities to enjoy.

9. 2022-02-28
   soldstatus $10,000 Closed
10. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $60,000
11. 2022-02-07
    status Pending
12. 2021-11-18
    listed $11,500 Active
13. 2021-04-30
    historical
14. 2012-02-01
    soldstatus $14,400
15. 2012-01-27
    soldstatus $1,200
16. 2011-01-21
    listed $5,000
17. 2009-11-08
    historical
18. 2009-05-08
    listed $8,000
19. 2009-05-08
    listed $8,000
20. 2005-10-31
    soldstatus $76,000
21. 2005-08-31
    soldstatus $99,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,936
• − Property taxes: −$4,268
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$8,276
• Taxable loss: −$9,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,221
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,514
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+185.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Pending — RACC
• 2026-02-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $284,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $284,500 RACC
• 2024-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records
• 2024-07-09 Sold (MLS) $13,167 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-29 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-18 Listed $11,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,400 Public Records
• 2012-01-27 Sold (MLS) $1,200 RACC
• 2011-01-21 Listed $5,000 RACC
• 2009-11-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-08 Listed $8,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-08 Listed $8,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $99,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $270 · +46.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.