7409 Skyline Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1977 4,200 sqft lot Est $144k · 10% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy Florida living in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in a desirable 55+ community with very low annual HOA dues. This home features a spacious and functional layout, along with an enclosed sunroom--perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing year-round in comfort. The low-maintenance yard is beautifully finished with decorative rock, eliminating the need for lawn care and making this an ideal seasonal or full-time residence. Offered fully furnished, this home is truly move-in ready--perfect for those looking for a seamless transition or a seasonal getaway without the hassle of furnishing. Residents enjoy access to a community clubhouse, pool, and a variety of social gatherings, creating a welcoming and active lifestyle. Conveniently located less than a mile from US-19 and near the Gulf, this home offers quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Whether you're looking to downsize, invest, or enjoy a peaceful Florida retreat, this property offers comfort, convenience, and value.

Key facts

• 4,200 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is furnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees $250, total monthly fees $20.83
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $250 (monthly equivalent $20.83); Association approval required; Association name: Marylou Eckstein; Community clubhouse and pool; Deed-restricted community; Senior community; Pets allowed with breed and size restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area and year details not provided
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Storage structure on property; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.69%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,640
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12119 Bonanza Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-1%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	88
12210 Bonanza Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-1%)	12mo	$178,500	$169	83
12201 Bonanza Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-1%)	11mo	$142,500	$135	82
12343 Lariat Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+0%)	13mo	$165,000	$154	81
7310 Stillwater Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+8%)	5mo	$90,000	$79	73
12110 Bonanza Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (-10%)	2mo	$90,000	$94	71
7309 Blue Lake Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-10%)	4mo	$115,000	$120	69
7412 Grand Pine Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-10%)	12mo	$145,000	$151	68
7303 Blue Lake Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-10%)	13mo	$165,000	$172	60
7318 Allyson St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+2%)	11mo	$145,000	$134	59
7308 Osage Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+12%)	13mo	$175,000	$147	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,735
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $30,007
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,799/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $569	+0% $533	+5% $496	+10% $460
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $461	+0% $533	+5% $604	+10% $676
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $565	base $533	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	25d	1	0.26mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	25d	1	0.30mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	18d	1	0.33mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.33mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	0.34mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	18d	1	0.38mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	5d	1	0.47mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	3d	1	0.50mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	5d	1	0.61mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	5d	1	0.63mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	3d	1	0.65mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	22d	1	0.70mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.70mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	25d	1	0.73mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	4d	1	0.74mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	13d	1	0.78mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	25d	1	0.79mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	12d	1	0.79mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	3d	10	0.79mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	13d	1	0.80mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.80mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.80mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	0d	1	0.83mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	0.88mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.88mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	0.90mi
12535 3rd Isle Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,600	$1.87	25d	1	0.91mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	25d	1	0.92mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	0d	1	0.97mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	25d	1	0.97mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	24d	1	1.01mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	5d	1	1.09mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	25d	1	1.09mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	25d	1	1.15mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	20d	1	1.15mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	18d	1	1.15mi
7724 Tyson Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	0d	1	1.16mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	1.16mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	22d	1	1.16mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $129,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $140,000 Active 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Welcome to easy Florida living in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in a desirable 55+ community with very low annual HOA dues. This home features a spacious and functional layout, along with an enclosed sunroom--perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing year-round in comfort. The low-maintenance yard is beautifully finished with decorative rock, eliminating the need for lawn care and making this an ideal seasonal or full-time residence. Offered fully furnished, this home is truly move-in ready--perfect for those looking for a seamless transition or a seasonal getaway without the hassle of furnishing. Residents enjoy access to a community clubhouse, pool, and a variety of social gatherings, creating a welcoming and active lifestyle. Conveniently located less than a mile from US-19 and near the Gulf, this home offers quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Whether you're looking to downsize, invest, or enjoy a peaceful Florida retreat, this property offers comfort, convenience, and value.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 52% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,799
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $5,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $140,000 HCAR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,799 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.