9340 Orangevale Ave #26 · Orangevale, CA 95662

$52,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 460 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $115/sqft · at area comps Est $55k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your 2024 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home in Twin Lakes Manor Mobile Home Park! This modern home boasts sleek stainless-steel appliances and elegant granite countertops, perfect for both cooking and entertaining. Enjoy affordable living with space rent at just $775 per month. Don't miss this opportunity for comfortable, stylish living in a welcoming community!

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Parking
• Built 2024

Tags

• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $53k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $857 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 2.8% in Orangevale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#635 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,184 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.33%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,950
• List price: $52,950
• Delta: -3.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9340 Orangevale Ave #27	0.01mi	1/1.0	460 (0%)	1mo	$53,000	$115	99
9340 Orangevale Ave #25	0.02mi	1/1.0	460 (0%)	4mo	$54,950	$119	96
9340 Orangevale Ave #19	0.02mi	1/1.0	460 (0%)	7mo	$52,000	$113	93
9127 Greenback Ln #20	0.62mi	1/1.0	400 (-13%)	11mo	$17,990	$45	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $44,367
• Equity at exit: $7,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $102,419
• Equity at exit: $4,578

Cash invested: $14,826 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95662

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$66 /mo · $794/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $463

Max offer price $52,950

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,238
• Closing costs: $1,588
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,950 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,950 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,950 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,950 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,950 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,950 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,950 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,950 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $52,950 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $52,950 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,950 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,950 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,950 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,950 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,966
• − Property taxes: −$794
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − Depreciation: −$1,540
• Taxable income: $10,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,408
• After-tax cash flow: $7,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern manufactured home in Twin Lakes Manor Mobile Home Park is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value
• Both Add a small front porch — A front porch can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — A front porch can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Orangevale

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #19999

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orangevale, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 32,600
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,600
• Household income: $96,689
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.79%
• Current HPI: 297.1675
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B