1111 Archwood Dr SW #345 · Olympia, WA 98502

$94,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 323 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW singlewide for sale at Friendly Ridge! Be the first to live in this 2023 Karsten: 2 bed / 1 bath / 648 sq. ft. The home is ready with a brand new carport, a new exterior storage shed, and gorgeous block skirting. Inside you will find large windows, and a kitchen with new stainless appliances. You'll also enjoy a newly renovated community clubhouse with incredible amenities. Friendly Ridge is a wonderful community and is conveniently located near everything Olympia has to offer. Come make it yours!

Key facts

• Brand new carport
• Community pool
• Built 2023

Tags

• BRAND NEW CARPORT
• NEW EXTERIOR STORAGE SHED
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $833 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $83,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.58%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $105,098
• Equity at exit: $85,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.09×
• Total profit: $268,394
• Equity at exit: $184,562

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,012/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $833

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $94,999

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $887	-5% $860	+0% $833	+5% $806	+10% $779
Rent	-10% $688	-5% $760	+0% $833	+5% $906	+10% $979
Rate	-1.0pp $881	-0.5pp $857	base $833	+0.5pp $808	+1.0pp $783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3311 6th Ave SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$2,082	$2.35	15d	16	0.27mi
1309 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,906	$2.37	15d	2	0.51mi
1900 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,823	$1.97	15d	13	0.61mi
1000 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,281	$2.56	15d	8	0.65mi
2800 Limited Ln NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,503	$1.94	15d	4	0.75mi
300 Kenyon St NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,995	$2.27	15d	6	0.80mi
3633 7th Ave SW Unit 14 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	500	$850	$1.70	15d	1	0.92mi
1818 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	437	$1,500	$3.43	15d	4	1.27mi
1919 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	695	$1,450	$2.09	22d	1	1.29mi
2008 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,799	$2.40	45d	3	1.37mi
2121 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	450	$1,395	$3.10	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,999 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,999 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,999 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,999 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,999 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,999 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,999 Active 315 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,999 Active 314 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,999 Active 313 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,999 Active 312 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,999 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,999 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,999 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,999 Active 305 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,999 Active 304 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $94,999 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    BRAND NEW singlewide for sale at Friendly Ridge! Be the first to live in this 2023 Karsten: 2 bed / 1 bath / 648 sq. ft. The home is ready with a brand new carport, a new exterior storage shed, and gorgeous block skirting. Inside you will find large windows, and a kitchen with new stainless appliances. You'll also enjoy a newly renovated community clubhouse with incredible amenities. Friendly Ridge is a wonderful community and is conveniently located near everything Olympia has to offer. Come make it yours!

17. 2025-10-29
    price $94,999
18. 2025-07-30
    listed $99,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,012 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,012 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,012
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $8,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,159
• After-tax cash flow: $7,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2023 Karsten singlewide is move-in ready with new appliances, flooring, and exterior features, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New flooring in kitchen and living area — Enhances aesthetics and durability
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality
• Both New exterior storage shed — Provides additional storage and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New flooring in kitchen and living area — Enhances aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Both New exterior storage shed — Provides additional storage and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $94,999 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $94,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Listed $99,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,012 · +18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.