12219 Urban Trees Way · Atascocita, TX 77346

$320,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,695 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2015 5,087 sqft lot $119/sqft · at area comps Est $308k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome HOME, a warm and inviting 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom with a big game room, a formal dining, a breakfast area and a beautiful yard. Upgraded ceramic tile enhances the downstairs with granite countertops in the kitchen and stylish backsplash. This HOME is perfect for YOU so schedule your showing NOW!

Key facts

• 5,087 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community managed by Crest Management Company; Annual association fee of $400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2015; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (15 x 13); Bedroom on first level (11 x 11); Bedroom on second level (11 x 11); Bedroom on second level (12 x 10); Bedroom on second level (10 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Double vanity(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen and family room combined layout; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Atascocita Springs El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 989 students, 37% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,768 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,748
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: 3.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18042 Noble Forest Dr	0.17mi	5/2.5	2,639 (-2%)	4mo	$264,000	$100	85
5055 Blue Spruce Hill St	0.15mi	6/2.5 (+1)	2,660 (-1%)	2mo	$283,000	$106	84
5022 Drew Forest Ln	0.31mi	5/2.5	2,667 (-1%)	3mo	$275,000	$103	81
4939 Falcon Forest Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,639 (-2%)	3mo	$210,000	$80	78
17702 Trail Mountain Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,729 (+1%)	1mo	$385,000	$141	72
12223 English Brook Cir	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,397 (-11%)	1mo	$239,500	$100	64
12115 Pinelands Park Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,772 (+3%)	2mo	$450,000	$162	62
12419 Adams Ridge Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,437 (-10%)	1mo	$320,000	$131	62
17619 Sequoia View Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,700 (+0%)	4mo	$229,900	$85	58
17914 June Forest Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,384 (-12%)	1mo	$289,500	$121	50
12630 Blackstone River Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,965 (+10%)	1mo	$414,000	$140	50
4954 Winding Timbers Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,319 (-14%)	0mo	$277,600	$120	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-46,894
• Equity at exit: $77,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-64,087
• Equity at exit: $82,454

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$582 /mo · $6,984/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,071

Max offer price $276,205

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-157	+0% $-248	+5% $-338	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-357	+0% $-248	+5% $-139	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-167	base $-248	+0.5pp $-331	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	7d	1	0.23mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	13d	1	0.33mi
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,681	$0.82	0d	1	0.35mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	0.47mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	0.70mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	0.74mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.79mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	45d	1	0.90mi
4110 Forest Rain Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2845	$2,370	$0.83	26d	1	1.00mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	1.33mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	26d	1	1.40mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $320,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $340,000 302-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $350,000 Active 302-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,984 · $582/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,984 · $582/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,984
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,647
• − Management: −$2,647
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$8,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $350,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,984 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.