Mccartney Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$357,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,383 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home features a Next Gen® suite with a separate entrance, living space, bedroom and bathroom, ideal for multigenerational households or residents needing extra privacy. The main home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room with access to the covered patio, making entertaining easy. The luxe owner's suite is in a rear corner of the home and has an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home.

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Walk-in closet
• Next gen suite

Tags

• NEXT GEN SUITE
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $357,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $384,350.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $358k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $292,401 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,350
• List price: $357,990
• Delta: -6.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8314 Holly Blue Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+0%)	2mo	$438,540	$183	75
2830 Obsidian Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,697 (+13%)	1mo	$449,581	$167	66
8219 Holly Blue Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,548 (+7%)	3mo	$453,990	$178	58
8319 Holly Blue Dr	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,731 (+15%)	2mo	$487,990	$179	50
2615 Precious Coral Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,666 (+12%)	1mo	$456,990	$171	49
8315 Holly Blue Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-12%)	1mo	$421,240	$201	47
8223 Holly Blue Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,731 (+15%)	2mo	$487,990	$179	47
8207 Holly Blue Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,731 (+15%)	3mo	$490,990	$180	44
8227 Holly Blue Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-12%)	3mo	$423,240	$202	43
8306 Holly Blue Dr	0.51mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,726 (+14%)	2mo	$456,390	$167	43
8222 Holly Blue Dr	0.54mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,726 (+14%)	3mo	$458,390	$168	41
2607 Precious Coral Dr	0.61mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,726 (+14%)	2mo	$456,390	$167	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-91,630
• Equity at exit: $57,308

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-136,631
• Equity at exit: $33,232

Cash invested: $107,618 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,016
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$480 /mo · $5,765/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,362

Max offer price $334,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-81	-5% $-213	+0% $-346	+5% $-479	+10% $-612
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-462	+0% $-346	+5% $-231	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-248	base $-346	+0.5pp $-446	+1.0pp $-547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,087
• Closing costs: $11,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	18d	1	0.12mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	24d	1	0.90mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	1d	1	1.18mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	1d	1	1.25mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	45d	1	1.33mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	1.45mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	45d	1	1.46mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	20d	1	1.48mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	45d	7	1.49mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	0d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $357,990 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $357,990 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $357,990 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $357,990 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $357,990 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $357,990 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $357,990 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $357,990 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $357,990 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $357,990 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $357,990 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $357,990 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $357,990 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $357,990 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $357,990 Active 153 DOM
16. 2025-12-29
    listed $357,990 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    This single-story home features a Next Gen® suite with a separate entrance, living space, bedroom and bathroom, ideal for multigenerational households or residents needing extra privacy. The main home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room with access to the covered patio, making entertaining easy. The luxe owner's suite is in a rear corner of the home and has an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while two secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,530
• − Property taxes: −$5,765
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,807
• − Management: −$2,807
• − Depreciation: −$11,181
• Taxable loss: −$10,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor cosmetic improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Listed $357,990 Zillow