1736 Island Dr NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$434,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1992 0.28 ac lot Est $424k · at est. $127/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate, affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath one level home in the highly desirable Carlyon Beach community! This home features new roof, fresh interior paint, durable hard-surface flooring, cozy freestanding wood stove, spacious primary suite with updated bath & large walk-in closet. Step outside through the slider to a private deck overlooking a fully fenced low maintenance yard, plus an additional partially fenced natural wooded area for added privacy & park like setting. As a homeowner, you’ll enjoy exclusive access to stunning private beaches, a marina with boat launch, kayak storage, and a clubhouse with regular community activities just 4 blocks away. The neighborhood a

Key facts

• Private deck
• Kayak storage
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• PRIVATE DECK
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• EXCLUSIVE ACCESS TO BEACHES
• MARINA WITH BOAT LAUNCH
• KAYAK STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is active; Buyer brokerage compensation 2.5%
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, State Bond, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: Part of Carlyon Beach HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $127 (includes common area maintenance and road maintenance); Community features: boat launch, CCRs, club house, park, playground; Beach rights / community waterfront / private beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (has garage); 2 covered spaces; 2 uncovered spaces; Off-street parking
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Community water (Carlyon Beach); Septic tank (individual septic); Electric power (Puget Sound Energy); Cable connected (Xfinity); Internet connected (Xfinity); Energy sources: electric and wood
• Home design: Single-family home; One-story (main entry); Built on lot; Has view; Main-level entry
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Wood exterior/wood products; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Garden space; Wooded setting; Level topography; Paved site/drive

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining room; Fireplace (wood-burning); Walk-in closets; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $434k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-820 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (41.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Griffin School (577 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $434k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,111 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.10%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $423,504
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9807 Overlook Dr NW	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-1%)	1mo	$405,000	$334	91
10110 Whitecap Dr NW	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+0%)	11mo	$425,000	$346	72
9824 Lookout Dr NW	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-1%)	12mo	$435,000	$358	70
10216 Steamboat Island Rd NW	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	5mo	$442,200	$369	66
9722 Lookout Dr NW	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,245 (+2%)	21mo	$470,000	$378	64
10122 Whitecap Dr NW	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	18mo	$330,000	$264	63
10122 Windward Dr NW	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (+6%)	5mo	$350,001	$268	56
9620 Lookout Dr NW	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+14%)	16mo	$457,000	$327	52
10128 Windward Dr NW	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,391 (+14%)	1mo	$455,000	$327	49
2514 Island Dr NW	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,138 (-7%)	23mo	$735,000	$646	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $184,490
• Equity at exit: $390,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $585,062
• Equity at exit: $843,167

Cash invested: $121,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,276
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,923/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$127
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,579

Max offer price $289,160

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,500
• Closing costs: $13,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9621 Steamboat Island Rd NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,950	$2.86	44d	1	0.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $127 · $1,524/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $434,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $434,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $434,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $434,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $434,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $434,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $434,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   remarks 685-char remark
9. 2026-06-05
   listed $434,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,923 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,253 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,330/yr (+$111/mo · 45.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,311
• − Property taxes: −$2,923
• − Insurance: −$2,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,439
• − Management: −$2,439
• − HOA: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$12,625
• Taxable loss: −$17,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,305
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+369.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $434,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-29 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $146,600 Public Records
• 2013-03-29 Sold (MLS) $146,600 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-01 Listed $155,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-30 Sold (MLS) $139,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $131,989 Public Records
• 2004-02-13 Listed $139,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,923 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.