CARSON Plan · Denton, TX 76259

$301,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily · 172 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 171 days

🏗️ New construction. The $301,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,553.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Krum Early Education Center (430 students, 49% FRL); Krum Middle (math 48% / reading 47%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 541 students, 37% FRL); Krum H S (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 686 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 365 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,873 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,553
• List price: $301,990
• Delta: -7.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Amber Fields Dr	0.19mi	5/2.5	1,818 (0%)	2mo	$290,990	$160	88
521 Amber Fields Dr	0.19mi	5/2.5	1,818 (0%)	3mo	$297,990	$164	86
533 Amber Fields Dr	0.20mi	5/2.5	1,818 (0%)	3mo	$293,990	$162	86
713 Wildrye Ln	0.36mi	5/2.5	1,818 (0%)	2mo	$299,990	$165	79
521 Babbling Brook Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,773 (-2%)	3mo	$347,990	$196	77
612 Babbling Brook Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-9%)	1mo	$288,990	$174	69
7608 Royal Fern Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,662 (-9%)	1mo	$292,990	$176	67
509 Red Admiral Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (+15%)	1mo	$338,990	$162	62
7524 Lavender Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,877 (+3%)	2mo	$388,334	$207	60
548 Shaded Grove Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (+15%)	4mo	$337,990	$162	60
7429 Sunset Valley Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (+12%)	1mo	$369,990	$182	50
7520 Lavender Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (+12%)	1mo	$369,990	$182	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-63,237
• Equity at exit: $48,541

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-68,454
• Equity at exit: $28,148

Cash invested: $91,155 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.8 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,990 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 208 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,883/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,848

Max offer price $301,644

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-53	+0% $-165	+5% $-278	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-269	+0% $-165	+5% $-61	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-82	base $-165	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,388
• Closing costs: $9,767
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7709 Tuscarora Dr Ponder, TX	5.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	60d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $301,990 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $301,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $301,990 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $301,990 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $301,990 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $301,990 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $301,990 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $301,990 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $301,990 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $301,990 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $301,990 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $301,990 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $301,990 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $301,990 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $301,990 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $301,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $301,990 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $301,990 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $301,990 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $301,990 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $301,990 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $301,990 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $301,990 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $301,990 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $301,990 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $301,990 Active 139 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $301,990 Active 138 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $301,990 Active 137 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $301,990 Active 136 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $301,990 Active 135 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $301,990 Active 134 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    price $301,990 Active 133 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $296,990 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $296,990 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $296,990 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $296,990 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $296,990 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $296,990 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $296,990 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $296,990 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $296,990 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $296,990 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $296,990 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $296,990 Active 118 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $296,990 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $296,990 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $296,990 Active 112 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $296,990 Active 111 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $296,990 Active 110 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $296,990 Active 107 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,236
• − Property taxes: −$4,883
• − Insurance: −$1,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − Depreciation: −$9,471
• Taxable loss: −$7,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,090–$27,270 screening

The Carson home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-designed layout, making it an attractive option for families or those seeking a move-in-ready home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrading flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Krum Early Education Center Middle Krum Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Krum H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 88/100

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 30% of renters

---

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Listed $290,990 Zillow