CARSON Plan · Justin, TX 76247

$310,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 150 days

🏗️ New construction. The $310,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,550.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Justin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#443 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W R Hatfield El (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 613 students, 29% FRL); Gene Pike Middle (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,150 students, 29% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 2168 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $261,204 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,550
• List price: $310,990
• Delta: -9.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16536 Madrone Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-1%)	1mo	$334,990	$186	88
16553 Madrone Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-1%)	0mo	$336,990	$187	88
16537 Madrone Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-2%)	1mo	$344,990	$194	87
16557 Hudson Prairie Way	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-1%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	85
16541 Hudson Prairie Way	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-2%)	1mo	$336,990	$190	85
708 Spaulding St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+4%)	0mo	$262,000	$140	70
16569 Port Arthur Pl	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-11%)	2mo	$329,990	$204	65
16629 White Fish Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+4%)	0mo	$265,000	$141	57
16713 Hudson Prairie Way	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+12%)	0mo	$349,990	$172	56
16717 Hudson Prairie Way	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (+13%)	0mo	$359,245	$176	51
248 Dewitt St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+12%)	0mo	$351,990	$173	48
16733 Hudson Prairie Way	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (+13%)	2mo	$367,845	$180	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-83,675
• Equity at exit: $51,374

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-128,332
• Equity at exit: $29,790

Cash invested: $96,474 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 110 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $341,990 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 2168
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,807
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,168/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,014

Max offer price $298,593

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-199	+0% $-318	+5% $-437	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-421	+0% $-318	+5% $-214	+10% $-111
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-230	base $-318	+0.5pp $-407	+1.0pp $-498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,138
• Closing costs: $10,336
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16521 Hudson Prairie Way Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2044	$2,495	$1.22	115d	1	0.08mi
316 Deaf Smith St Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2037	$2,599	$1.28	96d	1	0.08mi
316 Deaf Smith St Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2037	$2,700	$1.33	135d	1	0.08mi
16525 Hudson Prairie Way Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2044	$2,400	$1.17	127d	1	0.09mi
16537 Hudson Prairie Way Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2044	$2,495	$1.22	115d	1	0.12mi
16625 Laguna Vista St Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,500	$1.55	45d	1	0.16mi
16625 Laguna Vista St Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,500	$1.55	10d	1	0.16mi
233 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	5.0	2.0	1883	$2,340	$1.24	184d	1	0.25mi
229 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,100	$1.27	119d	1	0.25mi
16628 Hay Valley Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$2,450	$1.18	10d	1	0.29mi
16633 Hudson Prairie Way Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2118	$2,500	$1.18	10d	1	0.29mi
16608 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2339	$2,500	$1.07	130d	1	0.32mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,195	$1.32	102d	1	0.33mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,195	$1.32	109d	1	0.33mi
16441 Pembine Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,249	$1.24	99d	1	0.35mi
804 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,249	$1.20	133d	1	0.36mi
16756 Laguna Vista St Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1476	$2,100	$1.42	49d	1	0.36mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	184d	1	0.37mi
16713 Hudson Prairie Way Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,395	$1.18	3d	1	0.40mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	152d	1	0.40mi
16717 Hudson Prairie Way Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2044	$2,450	$1.20	3d	1	0.41mi
16424 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,095	$1.26	51d	1	0.43mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	184d	1	0.43mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,250	$1.29	10d	1	0.43mi
721 White Comb Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,400	$1.32	1d	1	0.46mi
721 White Comb Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,400	$1.32	95d	1	0.46mi
16537 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1653	$1,925	$1.16	112d	1	0.52mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,275	$1.24	13d	1	0.70mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,275	$1.24	10d	1	0.70mi
16428 Marinette Ct Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$2,295	$1.39	10d	1	0.72mi
16308 Caledonia Ct Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	130d	1	0.77mi
16113 Isles DR Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1938	$2,500	$1.29	10d	1	0.83mi
704 Forestdale Ct Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2506	$2,595	$1.04	10d	1	0.84mi
900 Shire Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2344	$2,500	$1.07	10d	1	0.87mi
16013 Crews Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2498	$2,350	$0.94	7d	1	0.97mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	153d	1	0.98mi
12981 Heather Brook Rd Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2432	$2,100	$0.86	78d	1	1.00mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	184d	1	1.09mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	184d	1	1.12mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	153d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-07-18
   days on market $310,990 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on market $310,990 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $310,990 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $310,990 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $310,990 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-07-11
   days on market $310,990 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-07-10
   days on market $310,990 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   days on market $310,990 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   days on market $310,990 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,990 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,990 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-07-05
    days on market $310,990 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-07-03
    days on market $310,990 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-07-02
    days on market $310,990 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-07-01
    days on market $310,990 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-06-30
    days on market $310,990 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-06-29
    days on market $310,990 Active 132 DOM
18. 2026-06-28
    days on market $310,990 Active 131 DOM
19. 2026-06-27
    days on market $310,990 Active 130 DOM
20. 2026-06-26
    days on market $310,990 Active 129 DOM
21. 2026-06-24
    days on market $310,990 Active 127 DOM
22. 2026-06-22
    days on market $310,990 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-06-22
    days on market $310,990 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-06-18
    days on market $310,990 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-06-17
    days on market $310,990 Active 120 DOM
26. 2026-06-16
    days on market $310,990 Active 119 DOM
27. 2026-06-15
    days on market $310,990 Active 118 DOM
28. 2026-06-13
    days on market $310,990 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-06-09
    days on market $310,990 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,990 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,990 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,990 Active 107 DOM
33. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,990 Active 106 DOM
34. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $310,990 Active 105 DOM
35. 2026-06-01
    days on market $307,990 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-05-31
    days on market $307,990 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-04-28
    price $307,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

38. 2026-04-14
    price $302,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

39. 2026-03-24
    price $298,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

40. 2026-02-17
    listed $296,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,300
• − Property taxes: −$5,168
• − Insurance: −$1,723
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,508
• − Management: −$2,508
• − Depreciation: −$10,023
• Taxable loss: −$9,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,060–$27,180 screening

The Carson home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W R Hatfield El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Chisholm Trail Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Northwest H S C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Justin

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #9059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 21,726
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $298,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Listed $296,990 Zillow