CARSON Plan · New Fairview, TX 76247

$310,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 121 days

🏗️ New construction. The $310,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $260,185 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,990
• List price: $310,990
• Delta: -6.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16608 Laguna Vista St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (+1%)	0mo	$332,630	$182	85
16612 Laguna Vista St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-1%)	1mo	$343,610	$191	85
16572 Hudson Prairie Way	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (-1%)	1mo	$339,600	$189	83
16624 Port Arthur Pl	0.35mi	5/2.0	1,812 (0%)	1mo	$303,990	$168	83
16641 Laguna Vista St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-2%)	0mo	$336,630	$189	82
16516 Laguna St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+1%)	0mo	$331,990	$181	82
16581 Port Arthur Pl	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-2%)	1mo	$344,550	$194	79
16449 Hudson Prairie Way	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (+12%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	70
16645 Geskey Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (+0%)	0mo	$315,000	$173	70
16573 Hudson Prairie Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+12%)	0mo	$346,990	$170	64
16636 Port Arthur Pl	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-9%)	1mo	$295,990	$180	62
16409 Marinette Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-9%)	1mo	$299,999	$182	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-76,595
• Equity at exit: $49,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-115,594
• Equity at exit: $28,704

Cash invested: $92,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1498
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,741
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,980/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,904

Max offer price $297,428

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,998
• Closing costs: $9,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	5.0	2.0	1883	$2,340	$1.24	43d	1	0.25mi
229 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,300	$1.40	22d	1	0.25mi
16608 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2339	$2,600	$1.11	10d	1	0.32mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,395	$1.44	1d	1	0.33mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	43d	1	0.37mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	11d	1	0.40mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	43d	1	0.43mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	2d	1	0.70mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	12d	1	0.98mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	43d	1	1.09mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	43d	1	1.12mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	12d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,990 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,990 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,990 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,990 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,990 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,990 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,990 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,990 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $310,990 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,990 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $310,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $307,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $307,990 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $307,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

15. 2026-04-14
    price $302,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

16. 2026-03-24
    price $298,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

17. 2026-02-17
    listed $296,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1,876 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice. May include options, elevations, and upgrades (such as

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,597
• − Property taxes: −$4,980
• − Insurance: −$1,660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,498
• − Management: −$2,498
• − Depreciation: −$9,658
• Taxable loss: −$8,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Carson home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers
• Resale Bathroom updates — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $298,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Listed $296,990 Zillow