2609 E 28th Ave · Tampa, FL 33605

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1947 4,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BANK OWNED!! NOT A SHORT SALE!! 3 BEDROOM 1 BATHROOM HOME IN GREAT CONDITION, GREAT OPPRTUNITY TO BUY A HOUSE THAT NEEDS MINOR TLC AND MAKE IT YOUR OWNLOCATED CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, INTERSTATE, AND SHOPPING!

Key facts

• Open living spaces
• One story layout
• Fenced lot

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• GENEROUS DRIVEWAY PARKING
• ONE STORY LAYOUT
• LAMINATE AND TILE FLOORING
• COOKTOP AND REFRIGERATOR
• OPEN LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RM-16; Total living area reported as 1,279 square feet; Building area reported as 4,750 square feet; Lot size approximately 441 square meters; Direction faces north
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Phone available; Water available
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One story; Faces north; Property condition: Fixer
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Foundation: Slab/Other; Built on approximately 0.11 acre
• Exterior features: Level lot; Sidewalk; Paved; Private mailbox; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Cooktop; Refrigerator; Private mailbox; Storage; Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Central heating; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middleton High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,511 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,059/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $124,216
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $340,857
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,123/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2610 E Lake Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1698	$2,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.14mi
2205 Chipco St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	0.27mi
3107 Chipco St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,799	$1.42	24d	1	0.32mi
3716 N 31st St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,895	$1.58	5d	1	0.36mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	5d	1	0.47mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	3d	1	0.47mi
4204 N 29th St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	957	$1,800	$1.88	24d	1	0.50mi
2214 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,295	$1.93	5d	1	0.58mi
3002 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,600	$1.84	24d	1	0.59mi
3101 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	3d	1	0.61mi
3507 E 29th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,700	$1.83	24d	1	0.61mi
4303 N 30th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$3,200	$2.54	1d	1	0.64mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	14d	1	0.64mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	10d	1	0.66mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	0.66mi
3517 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.69mi
1807 E 20th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$2,900	$2.56	24d	1	0.69mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Unit 301 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$2,050	$1.89	24d	1	0.70mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,995	$1.62	24d	1	0.70mi
2308 E 15th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,895	$2.02	14d	1	0.70mi
2006 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,495	$1.67	1d	1	0.73mi
1515 E 31st Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,500	$1.64	5d	1	0.74mi
2708 N 19th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	16d	1	0.77mi
3021 Sanchez St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	24d	1	0.79mi
2615 E Curtis St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,850	$1.18	20d	1	0.81mi
1808 E Columbus Dr #5 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1620	$1,900	$1.17	2d	1	0.82mi
1520 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,350	$1.41	16d	1	0.83mi
1504 E 33rd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,900	$2.62	24d	1	0.83mi
2504 E 12th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,500	$1.76	5d	1	0.83mi
1709 E Chelsea St Unit F Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1041	$1,625	$1.56	23d	1	0.83mi
1716 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	24d	1	0.86mi
1602 E North Bay St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	24d	1	0.87mi
3705 E North Bay St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	969	$1,850	$1.91	3d	1	0.87mi
2810 N 16th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1066	$2,550	$2.39	12d	1	0.89mi
2907 N 15th St Unit D Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	888	$1,850	$2.08	5d	1	0.91mi
2312 E 10th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1520	$2,400	$1.58	17d	1	0.94mi
3601 N 13th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,550	$1.42	24d	1	0.94mi
3411 N 13th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	978	$1,895	$1.94	24d	1	0.94mi
1305 E Louise Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,700	$1.95	24d	1	0.95mi
3724 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,895	$1.60	24d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-05-21
    listed $199,900 Active
11. 2013-07-25
    soldstatus $273,100
12. 2009-05-08
    soldstatus $35,000 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    BANK OWNED!! NOT A SHORT SALE!! 3 BEDROOM 1 BATHROOM HOME IN GREAT CONDITION, GREAT OPPRTUNITY TO BUY A HOUSE THAT NEEDS MINOR TLC AND MAKE IT YOUR OWNLOCATED CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, INTERSTATE, AND SHOPPING!

13. 2009-03-25
    listed $36,900 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    BANK OWNED!! NOT A SHORT SALE!! 3 BEDROOM 1 BATHROOM HOME IN GREAT CONDITION, GREAT OPPRTUNITY TO BUY A HOUSE THAT NEEDS MINOR TLC AND MAKE IT YOUR OWNLOCATED CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, INTERSTATE, AND SHOPPING!

14. 2007-12-18
    listed $169,000
15. 2007-02-01
    historical
16. 2007-01-04
    listed $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,123
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $3,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $273,100 Public Records
• 2009-05-08 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-25 Listed $36,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-18 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-04 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,123 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.