22742 E Yosemite Blvd #5 · La Grange, CA 95386

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 599 Days on market

Built 2020

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy this great 2 bed 1 bath 840 sqft Cozy cabin. Located within a few minutes walk to the Tuolumne River. The unit has a space for rent subject to park manager approval. Private lender is willing to carry with 30,000 down rate negotiable.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2020
• Listed 598 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 22742 E Yosemite Blvd #5, Waterford, CA 95386; gated community entrance described as 2.8 miles east of Roberts Ferry on the right of Hwy 132
• Financial info: Land lease: no (listed land lease amount entry present but land lease flagged No)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Electric: other; Septic system; Private water
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Single-wide model; Little Lodges make; Built in 2020
• Construction: Composition and metal roof; Skirting: none
• Exterior features: River access; Attached deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Multi-zone heating; Multi-unit cooling; Other heating and cooling features
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Attached deck off the living room; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: No in-home laundry (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 599 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 599 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.37%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $24,025
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $73,013
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95386

• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $699	-5% $665	+0% $630	+5% $595	+10% $561
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $558	+0% $630	+5% $702	+10% $775
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $655	base $630	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 599 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 598 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 597 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 596 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 595 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 593 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 592 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 589 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 588 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 587 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 585 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 583 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 582 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 581 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 580 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 579 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$2,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $6,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — La Grange

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,410

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 43% Two or more races 26% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Lithuanian 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.91%
• Current HPI: 302.4976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B