49 Maple Ave · Fredonia, NY 14063

$169,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1912 0.29 ac lot $92/sqft · 27% below area Est $231k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

VILLAGE HOME CONSISTING OF 2 FULL BATHS 4 BEDROOMS, KEY LOCATION, BACKS UP TO FREDONIA STATE COLLEGE. PLENTY OF PRIVACY IN YOUR BACK YARD. GREAT HOME TO ENTERTAIN IN. ORIGINAL WOODWORK & FLOORS, KITCHEN HAS BEEN UPDATED / BATHS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

Key facts

• Baths in good shape
• Updated kitchen
• Original woodwork

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BATHS IN GOOD SHAPE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Workshop space in garage; 19 garage spaces
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Utilities connected
• Home design: 2-story existing home; Resale condition; City street frontage
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Full basement
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot (75 x 167)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator; Country / eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9; Bedrooms information not specified
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Combined living/dining room; Solid surface counters; Sunroom / Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Fredonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in NY, #1,446 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Fredonia Central School District (town): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #376 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fredonia Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 398 students, 49% FRL); Fredonia Middle School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 426 students, 43% FRL); Fredonia High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #342 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 463 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 28% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $144,163 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,435
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -26.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Maple Ave	0.02mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,996 (+9%)	10mo	$225,000	$113	69
14 Westerly Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+3%)	1mo	$244,925	$130	58
18 Leverett St	0.30mi	4/1.5	2,000 (+9%)	13mo	$159,900	$80	58
410 Chestnut St	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,809 (-1%)	8mo	$160,000	$88	53
28 Lowell Pl	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,710 (-7%)	10mo	$214,000	$125	52
49 Day St	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,090 (+14%)	9mo	$224,500	$107	49
74 Newton St	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,632 (-11%)	20mo	$170,000	$104	47
121 E Main St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,609 (-12%)	4mo	$105,000	$65	47
103 Gardner St	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,676 (-8%)	4mo	$81,588	$49	40
15 Leon Pl	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,696 (-7%)	22mo	$195,000	$115	39
12 Lowell Pl	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,064 (+13%)	21mo	$230,000	$111	31
15 Gillis St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,088 (+14%)	21mo	$225,000	$108	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-36,144
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-42,208
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14063

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$490 /mo · $5,874/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,831

Max offer price $144,163

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-93	+0% $-141	+5% $-188	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-206	+0% $-141	+5% $-75	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-98	base $-141	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 252-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $169,000 Active 252-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,874 · $490/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,874 · $490/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$5,874
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $-621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredonia Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611520
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,491
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #3086
• State rank: #376 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fredonia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1446

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,722

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Italian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.55%
• Current HPI: 253.5334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $169,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,874 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.