322 Lake St · South Fork, PA 15956

$43,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

3,049 sqft lot $36/sqft · 39% below area Est $70k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LET'S GET MOVING TO SOUTH FORK BORO. .. this 4 bedroom home could be the home you have been searching for and more. Among the home's recent updates are newer metal roof and newer windows with transferrable life time warranty. You will appreciate the spacious living room and the large eat-in kitchen when entertaining guests. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms and 3/4 bath. The unfinished basement provides laundry hook-ups and storage. Propane hot water heat will keep you cozy during the winter months. The covered front and rear porches are perfect for relaxing, One-car garage and off-street parking are located at the rear of the property. Don't miss this opportunity. For more details, to receive your tour packet, and to schedule your personal tour, call today!

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Unfinished basement
• Newer windows

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LAUNDRY HOOK-UPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,644 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Forest Hills SD (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #293 of 539 in PA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $828 of equity ($297 loan paydown + $531 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,710 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.40%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,216
• List price: $43,000
• Delta: -38.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $35,792
• Equity at exit: $15,208

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.01×
• Total profit: $84,457
• Equity at exit: $20,626

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15956

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $477

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $553	+0% $540	+5% $528	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $449	-5% $495	+0% $540	+5% $586	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $551	base $540	+0.5pp $529	+1.0pp $518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $43,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $43,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $49,000 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING TO SOUTH FORK BORO. .. this 4 bedroom home could be the home you have been searching for and more. Among the home's recent updates are newer metal roof and newer windows with transferrable life time warranty. You will appreciate the spacious living room and the large eat-in kitchen when entertaining guests. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms and 3/4 bath. The unfinished basement provides laundry hook-ups and storage. Propane hot water heat will keep you cozy during the winter months. The covered front and rear porches are perfect for relaxing, One-car garage and off-street parking are located at the rear of the property. Don't miss this opportunity. For more details, to receive your tour packet, and to schedule your personal tour, call today!

17. 2026-04-21
    listed $54,900 Active 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    LET'S GET MOVING TO SOUTH FORK BORO. .. this 4 bedroom home could be the home you have been searching for and more. Among the home's recent updates are newer metal roof and newer windows with transferrable life time warranty. You will appreciate the spacious living room and the large eat-in kitchen when entertaining guests. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms and 3/4 bath. The unfinished basement provides laundry hook-ups and storage. Propane hot water heat will keep you cozy during the winter months. The covered front and rear porches are perfect for relaxing, One-car garage and off-street parking are located at the rear of the property. Don't miss this opportunity. For more details, to receive your tour packet, and to schedule your personal tour, call today!

18. 2008-08-06
    listed $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $6,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $4,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Hills SD
• NCES district ID: 4209940
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,950
• Composite: 37.27/100
• National rank: #4452
• State rank: #293 of 539 in PA

Livability — South Fork

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1644
• US rank: #22758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Fork, PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,464

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 6% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 65.5057
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+30.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $49,000 CSMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $54,900 CSMLS
• 2008-08-06 Listed $37,500 CSMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $938 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.