103 Chism St · Buchanan Lake Village, TX 78611

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 1958 7,562 sqft lot $176/sqft · 22% below area Est $217k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAKE TIME Y'ALL!! Check out this newly remodeled cottage at Silver Creek, Lake Buchanan, just around the bend from Burnet County Park boat launch and local Lake Buchanan attractions like Spider Mountain Bike Park, Templeton's Tavern, and Reveille Peak Ranch. Also within minutes of wineries, Longhorn Caverns, Inks Lake State Park, Marble Falls and the Highland Lakes Hill Country corridor. SUPER CUTE 2/1 with a huge yard, glimpses of the lake, huge bank of windows, and expansive deck for entertaining. Easy maintenance slate flooring throughout. SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED! 15 minutes from Burnet, 1.5 hours to ABIA. So affordable, you could buy several.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Glimpses of the lake
• Huge bank of windows

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED COTTAGE
• HUGE YARD
• GLIMPSES OF THE LAKE
• HUGE BANK OF WINDOWS
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.7% in Buchanan Lake Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,160 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 554 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,270 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,818
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -22.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Chestnut St	0.19mi	2/1.0	962 (+0%)	17mo	$154,999	$161	77
321 Lakewood Dr	0.18mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (+9%)	15mo	$419,000	$399	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-34,192
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-38,482
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78611

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 554
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $153,490

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-49	+0% $-107	+5% $-166	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-160	+0% $-107	+5% $-54	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-64	base $-107	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $169,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    LAKE TIME Y'ALL!! Check out this newly remodeled cottage at Silver Creek, Lake Buchanan, just around the bend from Burnet CountyPark boat launch and local Lake Buchanan attractions like Spider Mountain Bike Park, Templeton's Tavern, and Reveille Peak Ranch. Also within minutes of wineries, Longhorn Caverns, Inks Lake State Park, Marble Falls and the Highland Lakes Hill Country corridor. SUPER CUTE 2/1 with a huge yard, glimpses of the lake, huge bank of windows, and expansive deck for entertaining. Easy maintenance slate flooring throughout. SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED! 15 minutes from Burnet, 1.5 hours to ABIA. So affordable, you could buy several.

16. 2026-05-13
    price $169,000 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    LAKE TIME Y'ALL!! Check out this newly remodeled cottage at Silver Creek, Lake Buchanan, just around the bend from Burnet CountyPark boat launch and local Lake Buchanan attractions like Spider Mountain Bike Park, Templeton's Tavern, and Reveille Peak Ranch. Also within minutes of wineries, Longhorn Caverns, Inks Lake State Park, Marble Falls and the Highland Lakes Hill Country corridor. SUPER CUTE 2/1 with a huge yard, glimpses of the lake, huge bank of windows, and expansive deck for entertaining. Easy maintenance slate flooring throughout. SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED! 15 minutes from Burnet, 1.5 hours to ABIA. So affordable, you could buy several.

17. 2026-05-13
    price $169,000

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    LAKE TIME Y'ALL!! Check out this newly remodeled cottage at Silver Creek, Lake Buchanan, just around the bend from Burnet CountyPark boat launch and local Lake Buchanan attractions like Spider Mountain Bike Park, Templeton's Tavern, and Reveille Peak Ranch. Also within minutes of wineries, Longhorn Caverns, Inks Lake State Park, Marble Falls and the Highland Lakes Hill Country corridor. SUPER CUTE 2/1 with a huge yard, glimpses of the lake, huge bank of windows, and expansive deck for entertaining. Easy maintenance slate flooring throughout. SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED! 15 minutes from Burnet, 1.5 hours to ABIA. So affordable, you could buy several.

18. 2026-04-04
    listed $175,000 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    LAKE TIME Y'ALL!! Check out this newly remodeled cottage at Silver Creek, Lake Buchanan, just around the bend from Burnet CountyPark boat launch and local Lake Buchanan attractions like Spider Mountain Bike Park, Templeton's Tavern, and Reveille Peak Ranch. Also within minutes of wineries, Longhorn Caverns, Inks Lake State Park, Marble Falls and the Highland Lakes Hill Country corridor. SUPER CUTE 2/1 with a huge yard, glimpses of the lake, huge bank of windows, and expansive deck for entertaining. Easy maintenance slate flooring throughout. SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED! 15 minutes from Burnet, 1.5 hours to ABIA. So affordable, you could buy several.

19. 2026-04-04
    listed $175,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    LAKE TIME Y'ALL!! Check out this newly remodeled cottage at Silver Creek, Lake Buchanan, just around the bend from Burnet CountyPark boat launch and local Lake Buchanan attractions like Spider Mountain Bike Park, Templeton's Tavern, and Reveille Peak Ranch. Also within minutes of wineries, Longhorn Caverns, Inks Lake State Park, Marble Falls and the Highland Lakes Hill Country corridor. SUPER CUTE 2/1 with a huge yard, glimpses of the lake, huge bank of windows, and expansive deck for entertaining. Easy maintenance slate flooring throughout. SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED! 15 minutes from Burnet, 1.5 hours to ABIA. So affordable, you could buy several.

20. 2026-04-03
    listed $175,000 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    LAKE TIME Y'ALL!! Check out this newly remodeled cottage at Silver Creek, Lake Buchanan, just around the bend from Burnet County Park boat launch and local Lake Buchanan attractions like Spider Mountain Bike Park, Templeton's Tavern, and Reveille Peak Ranch. Also within minutes of wineries, Longhorn Caverns, Inks Lake State Park, Marble Falls and the Highland Lakes Hill Country corridor. SUPER CUTE 2/1 with a huge yard, glimpses of the lake, huge bank of windows, and expansive deck for entertaining. Easy maintenance slate flooring throughout. SHORT TERM RENTALS ALLOWED! 15 minutes from Burnet, 1.5 hours to ABIA. So affordable, you could buy several.

21. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus
22. 2013-08-01
    listed $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 43% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,289
• − Management: −$1,289
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $-271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnet CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5811
• State rank: #465 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buchanan Lake Village

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1160
• US rank: #20291

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 14,560
• Household income: $80,938
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 253.5299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+144.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $169,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $169,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $169,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $175,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $175,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $175,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2013-08-01 Listed $69,000 Unlock MLS