10514 Pacific Way · Long Beach, WA 98631

$184,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1977 10,019 sqft lot $253/sqft · 32% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-kept home on double lot with path to the Beach just a few hundred feet away at west end of 105th street. Just 4 blocks north of Long Beach City Limits, golf course and path to beach. Enclosed porch and 300 finished sq ft bonus room/guest bedroom add additional square footage. Fenced yard, deck, 6 outbuildings, newer metal roof, wood stove and paved drive. All furnishings and security system included. Hard to find anything at this price, much less this close to the beach! R3 zoning allows vacation rentals outright. Motivated seller; Priced 23K below assessed value. Ready to move in or rent or build a second home on extra lot. Completely furnished down to the silverware! BEST BUY!

Key facts

• Path to the beach
• Fenced yard
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• PATH TO THE BEACH
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• BONUS ROOM
• FENCED YARD
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($842/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.0% in Long Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#133 in WA, #2,635 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A-, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,594 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,548
• List price: $184,000
• Delta: -51.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,387
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,518
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98631

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,504/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $184,000 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $184,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $184,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-13
   price $184,000
6. 2026-03-20
   listed $197,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥74°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$1,504
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$2,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $1,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Long Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #2635

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,468

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.26%
• Current HPI: 240.5056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $184,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $197,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,504 · +27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.