15389 Dapple Bluff Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$294,920

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,285 sqft · Land · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 $129/sqft · at area comps Est $304k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Covered patio
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $262,799 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,473
• List price: $294,920
• Delta: -3.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-32,581
• Equity at exit: $43,974

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,740
• Equity at exit: $25,499

Cash invested: $82,578 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,340

Max offer price $294,920

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,730
• Closing costs: $8,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	43d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 824-char remark

   Show marketing remark (824 chars)

   Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $294,920 824-char remark

   Show marketing remark (824 chars)

   Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

3. 2026-05-01
   price $299,920 824-char remark

   Show marketing remark (824 chars)

   Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

4. 2026-04-29
   price $294,920 824-char remark

   Show marketing remark (824 chars)

   Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

5. 2026-04-25
   price $299,920 824-char remark

   Show marketing remark (824 chars)

   Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

6. 2026-03-19
   listed $314,950 Active 824-char remark

   Show marketing remark (824 chars)

   Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

7. 2026-03-19
   historical

   Show marketing remark (824 chars)

   Move-in Ready. Welcome to this beautifully designed Dinero plan by Centex, a two-story home featuring four bedrooms, two and a half baths, plus a dedicated office. The open-concept layout connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space that’s perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a spacious island that anchors the heart of the home. The owner’s suite offers a private bathroom with a walk-in shower and a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Upstairs, you’ll find a versatile loft area that can serve as a second living space, game room, or media area. With plenty of storage throughout, a covered patio for outdoor relaxation, and an oversized lot that gives you extra space to enjoy, this home blends flexibility, comfort, and room to grow.

8. 2026-03-06
   price $314,950
9. 2026-02-26
   listed $330,910 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,397 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,207/yr (+$351/mo · 353.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,520
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,523
• − Management: −$2,523
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$2,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$536
• After-tax cash flow: $3,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $294,920 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $299,920 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $294,920 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $299,920 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $314,950 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $314,950 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $330,910 HARMLS

Property tax history

-30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.