The Ryker Plan · Vance, AL 35490

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily · 611 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Ryker Plan, one of our floorplans providing new home conveniences, while hosting a comfortable and elegant open concept living. Just under 1,500 square feet, this beautiful single- story home offers 4-bedrooms with 2-bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, an inviting foyer, a full guest bedroom that could also serve as an office, and a hall leading to the 2nd and 3rd secondary bedrooms; with a full bathroom sandwiched in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization. Also, upon entering the home you will have immediate access to the single-car garage, storage, and your laundry room. As you continue to the end of the hall, you will find the remarkable open layout of the living area and beautiful kitchen. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a center island perfect for additional seating. With natural light and nearby covered patio access, the living and dining area are integrated perfectly to complete this space for you and your guests to enjoy. Relish the easy maintenance in this area and all bathrooms with our luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is tucked away off the dining area. With sunlight streaming in, this suite offers a tranquil, otherworldly retreat. The spa-like bath with a relaxing shower, double vanity sink, and large walk-in closet. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryke

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 611 days

🏗️ New construction. The $249,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,977.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 611 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,174 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 611 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,977
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -4.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18548 Caffee Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+4%)	1mo	$262,900	$176	88
18566 Caffee Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+4%)	1mo	$262,400	$175	86
18553 Caffee Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+4%)	3mo	$254,900	$170	85
18626 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,444 (0%)	8mo	$244,900	$170	81
18644 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+4%)	6mo	$257,400	$172	77
18662 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+4%)	9mo	$262,400	$175	74
18565 Blocton Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+4%)	6mo	$257,400	$172	74
18717 Caffee Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+4%)	3mo	$249,900	$167	73
10758 Bent Brook Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,583 (+10%)	1mo	$260,000	$164	64
18668 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-12%)	8mo	$234,900	$185	56
18723 Caffee Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-12%)	3mo	$239,900	$189	55
18705 Caffee Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-12%)	5mo	$244,900	$193	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $121,472
• Equity at exit: $235,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $374,042
• Equity at exit: $507,021

Cash invested: $73,074 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,369
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,915/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $213,967

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-235	+0% $-325	+5% $-415	+10% $-505
Rent	-10% $-473	-5% $-399	+0% $-325	+5% $-251	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-193	-0.5pp $-259	base $-325	+0.5pp $-393	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,244
• Closing costs: $7,829
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	22d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 611 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 608 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 607 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 606 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 605 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 603 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 602 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 600 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 599 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 598 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 597 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 594 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 593 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 592 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 591 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 590 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 589 DOM
18. 2026-01-27
    price $249,900 1494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1494 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker Plan, one of our floorplans providing new home conveniences, while hosting a comfortable and elegant open concept living. Just under 1,500 square feet, this beautiful single- story home offers 4-bedrooms with 2-bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, an inviting foyer, a full guest bedroom that could also serve as an office, and a hall leading to the 2nd and 3rd secondary bedrooms; with a full bathroom sandwiched in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization. Also, upon entering the home you will have immediate access to the single-car garage, storage, and your laundry room. As you continue to the end of the hall, you will find the remarkable open layout of the living area and beautiful kitchen. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a center island perfect for additional seating. With natural light and nearby covered patio access, the living and dining area are integrated perfectly to complete this space for you and your guests to enjoy. Relish the easy maintenance in this area and all bathrooms with our luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is tucked away off the dining area. With sunlight streaming in, this suite offers a tranquil, otherworldly retreat. The spa-like bath with a relaxing shower, double vanity sink, and large walk-in closet. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryke

19. 2025-07-02
    price $244,900 1494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1494 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker Plan, one of our floorplans providing new home conveniences, while hosting a comfortable and elegant open concept living. Just under 1,500 square feet, this beautiful single- story home offers 4-bedrooms with 2-bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, an inviting foyer, a full guest bedroom that could also serve as an office, and a hall leading to the 2nd and 3rd secondary bedrooms; with a full bathroom sandwiched in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization. Also, upon entering the home you will have immediate access to the single-car garage, storage, and your laundry room. As you continue to the end of the hall, you will find the remarkable open layout of the living area and beautiful kitchen. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a center island perfect for additional seating. With natural light and nearby covered patio access, the living and dining area are integrated perfectly to complete this space for you and your guests to enjoy. Relish the easy maintenance in this area and all bathrooms with our luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is tucked away off the dining area. With sunlight streaming in, this suite offers a tranquil, otherworldly retreat. The spa-like bath with a relaxing shower, double vanity sink, and large walk-in closet. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryke

20. 2025-01-08
    price $242,400 1494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1494 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker Plan, one of our floorplans providing new home conveniences, while hosting a comfortable and elegant open concept living. Just under 1,500 square feet, this beautiful single- story home offers 4-bedrooms with 2-bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, an inviting foyer, a full guest bedroom that could also serve as an office, and a hall leading to the 2nd and 3rd secondary bedrooms; with a full bathroom sandwiched in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization. Also, upon entering the home you will have immediate access to the single-car garage, storage, and your laundry room. As you continue to the end of the hall, you will find the remarkable open layout of the living area and beautiful kitchen. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a center island perfect for additional seating. With natural light and nearby covered patio access, the living and dining area are integrated perfectly to complete this space for you and your guests to enjoy. Relish the easy maintenance in this area and all bathrooms with our luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is tucked away off the dining area. With sunlight streaming in, this suite offers a tranquil, otherworldly retreat. The spa-like bath with a relaxing shower, double vanity sink, and large walk-in closet. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryke

21. 2024-11-26
    price $237,400 1494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1494 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker Plan, one of our floorplans providing new home conveniences, while hosting a comfortable and elegant open concept living. Just under 1,500 square feet, this beautiful single- story home offers 4-bedrooms with 2-bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, an inviting foyer, a full guest bedroom that could also serve as an office, and a hall leading to the 2nd and 3rd secondary bedrooms; with a full bathroom sandwiched in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization. Also, upon entering the home you will have immediate access to the single-car garage, storage, and your laundry room. As you continue to the end of the hall, you will find the remarkable open layout of the living area and beautiful kitchen. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a center island perfect for additional seating. With natural light and nearby covered patio access, the living and dining area are integrated perfectly to complete this space for you and your guests to enjoy. Relish the easy maintenance in this area and all bathrooms with our luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is tucked away off the dining area. With sunlight streaming in, this suite offers a tranquil, otherworldly retreat. The spa-like bath with a relaxing shower, double vanity sink, and large walk-in closet. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryke

22. 2024-10-24
    price $234,900 1494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1494 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker Plan, one of our floorplans providing new home conveniences, while hosting a comfortable and elegant open concept living. Just under 1,500 square feet, this beautiful single- story home offers 4-bedrooms with 2-bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, an inviting foyer, a full guest bedroom that could also serve as an office, and a hall leading to the 2nd and 3rd secondary bedrooms; with a full bathroom sandwiched in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization. Also, upon entering the home you will have immediate access to the single-car garage, storage, and your laundry room. As you continue to the end of the hall, you will find the remarkable open layout of the living area and beautiful kitchen. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a center island perfect for additional seating. With natural light and nearby covered patio access, the living and dining area are integrated perfectly to complete this space for you and your guests to enjoy. Relish the easy maintenance in this area and all bathrooms with our luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is tucked away off the dining area. With sunlight streaming in, this suite offers a tranquil, otherworldly retreat. The spa-like bath with a relaxing shower, double vanity sink, and large walk-in closet. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryke

23. 2024-10-18
    listed $244,900 Active 1494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1494 chars)

    Welcome to the Ryker Plan, one of our floorplans providing new home conveniences, while hosting a comfortable and elegant open concept living. Just under 1,500 square feet, this beautiful single- story home offers 4-bedrooms with 2-bathrooms, and a 1-car garage. Met with a cozy covered porch as you enter the home, an inviting foyer, a full guest bedroom that could also serve as an office, and a hall leading to the 2nd and 3rd secondary bedrooms; with a full bathroom sandwiched in between. Each bedroom boasts plenty of space and sizeable closets for organization. Also, upon entering the home you will have immediate access to the single-car garage, storage, and your laundry room. As you continue to the end of the hall, you will find the remarkable open layout of the living area and beautiful kitchen. The kitchen includes granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish shaker cabinetry, and a center island perfect for additional seating. With natural light and nearby covered patio access, the living and dining area are integrated perfectly to complete this space for you and your guests to enjoy. Relish the easy maintenance in this area and all bathrooms with our luxury vinyl plank flooring. The primary bedroom is tucked away off the dining area. With sunlight streaming in, this suite offers a tranquil, otherworldly retreat. The spa-like bath with a relaxing shower, double vanity sink, and large walk-in closet. In addition to all the features and amenities our Ryke

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,619
• − Property taxes: −$3,915
• − Insurance: −$1,305
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$7,592
• Taxable loss: −$8,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,055
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $244,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $242,400 Zillow
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $237,400 Zillow
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $234,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-18 Listed $244,900 Zillow