39219 Water Rail Ct · Magnolia, TX 77354

$649,844

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

Built 2026 0.28 ac lot $152/sqft · 15% below area Est $768k · 15% under $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Westin Homes NEW Construction (Carter XXL, Elevation H) CURRENTLY BEING BUILT. This stunning two-story home offers 5 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms, blending space, comfort, and style. The expansive island kitchen with abundant cabinetry opens to the family room, breakfast area, and dining room—ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The first-floor primary suite features dual walk-in closets and a spa-like bath, while a private secondary bedroom is perfect for guests. Upstairs includes three bedrooms, two baths, a spacious game room, and a media room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio and added storage in the 3-car tandem garage. Located in the master planned community of Audubon, residents will enjoy a resort-style pool, clubhouse, scenic trails, parks, playgrounds, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Contact the Westin Homes sales office at Audubon to learn more.

Key facts

• Scenic trails
• Island kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• SCENIC TRAILS
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (60.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (61.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (61.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,179 (61.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.49%
• DSCR: 0.22
• GRM: 21.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $767,605
• List price: $649,844
• Delta: -15.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Artic Warbler Ct	0.68mi	5/5.0	4,214 (-1%)	15mo	$749,990	$178	52
115 Shoveler Duck Way	0.72mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,337 (+2%)	11mo	$844,990	$195	50
307 Masked Duck Ct	0.68mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,014 (-6%)	7mo	$849,990	$212	47
103 Shoveler Duck Way	0.75mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,951 (-7%)	1mo	$899,990	$228	47
410 Artic Warbler Ct	0.70mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,954 (-7%)	15mo	$829,990	$210	38
319 Masked Duck Ct	0.64mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,004 (-6%)	24mo	$849,990	$212	35
136 Shoveler Duck Way	0.73mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,792 (-11%)	16mo	$922,476	$243	30
308 Masked Duck Ct	0.68mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,685 (-14%)	18mo	$789,990	$214	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $174,287
• Equity at exit: $585,431

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $637,764
• Equity at exit: $1,262,504

Cash invested: $181,956 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 21.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$812 /mo · $9,748/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-2,719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,964

Max offer price $256,376

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,461
• Closing costs: $19,495
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,844 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $649,844 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $674,844 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $674,844 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $674,844 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $674,844 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $674,844 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $674,844 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $674,844 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $674,844 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $674,844 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $674,844 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $674,844 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $674,844 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Westin Homes NEW Construction (Carter XXL, Elevation H) CURRENTLY BEING BUILT. This stunning two-story home offers 5 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms, blending space, comfort, and style. The expansive island kitchen with abundant cabinetry opens to the family room, breakfast area, and dining room—ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The first-floor primary suite features dual walk-in closets and a spa-like bath, while a private secondary bedroom is perfect for guests. Upstairs includes three bedrooms, two baths, a spacious game room, and a media room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio and added storage in the 3-car tandem garage. Located in the master planned community of Audubon, residents will enjoy a resort-style pool, clubhouse, scenic trails, parks, playgrounds, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Contact the Westin Homes sales office at Audubon to learn more.

15. 2026-04-07
    price $694,844 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Westin Homes NEW Construction (Carter XXL, Elevation H) CURRENTLY BEING BUILT. This stunning two-story home offers 5 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms, blending space, comfort, and style. The expansive island kitchen with abundant cabinetry opens to the family room, breakfast area, and dining room—ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The first-floor primary suite features dual walk-in closets and a spa-like bath, while a private secondary bedroom is perfect for guests. Upstairs includes three bedrooms, two baths, a spacious game room, and a media room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio and added storage in the 3-car tandem garage. Located in the master planned community of Audubon, residents will enjoy a resort-style pool, clubhouse, scenic trails, parks, playgrounds, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Contact the Westin Homes sales office at Audubon to learn more.

16. 2026-02-27
    price $739,844 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Westin Homes NEW Construction (Carter XXL, Elevation H) CURRENTLY BEING BUILT. This stunning two-story home offers 5 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms, blending space, comfort, and style. The expansive island kitchen with abundant cabinetry opens to the family room, breakfast area, and dining room—ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The first-floor primary suite features dual walk-in closets and a spa-like bath, while a private secondary bedroom is perfect for guests. Upstairs includes three bedrooms, two baths, a spacious game room, and a media room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio and added storage in the 3-car tandem garage. Located in the master planned community of Audubon, residents will enjoy a resort-style pool, clubhouse, scenic trails, parks, playgrounds, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Contact the Westin Homes sales office at Audubon to learn more.

17. 2026-02-26
    listed $776,236 Active 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Westin Homes NEW Construction (Carter XXL, Elevation H) CURRENTLY BEING BUILT. This stunning two-story home offers 5 bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms, blending space, comfort, and style. The expansive island kitchen with abundant cabinetry opens to the family room, breakfast area, and dining room—ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The first-floor primary suite features dual walk-in closets and a spa-like bath, while a private secondary bedroom is perfect for guests. Upstairs includes three bedrooms, two baths, a spacious game room, and a media room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio and added storage in the 3-car tandem garage. Located in the master planned community of Audubon, residents will enjoy a resort-style pool, clubhouse, scenic trails, parks, playgrounds, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Contact the Westin Homes sales office at Audubon to learn more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,401
• − Property taxes: −$9,748
• − Insurance: −$4,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$18,905
• Taxable loss: −$45,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,927
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $674,844 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $694,844 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $739,844 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $776,236 HARMLS