5409 Hickory Dr · Indian River Estates, FL 34982

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1988 10,000 sqft lot Est $278k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A LITTLE TLC WILL GO A LONG WAY TO MAKE THIS HOUSE A HOME! SOME FEATURES ARE LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING, PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD, SHED, BAY WINDOWS IN L/R AND KITCHEN, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2009, CORIAN COUNTERS IN KITCHEN......NO APPLIANCES! VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW!!! PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY! BUYER TO ASSUME WATER ASSESSMENT. NOT A FORECLOSURE OR SHORT SALE!!! CAN CLOSE QUICKLY!!!!!

Key facts

• Fresh coat of paint
• Covered patio
• Fenced-in backyard

Tags

• FRESH COAT OF PAINT
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported as 1,124 (source: owner)
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Has association (no association amenities listed)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Three-phase electric service; Septic tank sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Resale condition; Faces east
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction; Other construction materials noted
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; No waterfront features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No special interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($56/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#653 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,220/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1086% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,994 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,628
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5409 Sunset Blvd	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+5%)	5mo	$255,000	$215	79
5207 Birch Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-3%)	4mo	$285,000	$261	78
5505 Myrtle Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+7%)	2mo	$369,900	$307	78
5502 Hickory Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,174 (+4%)	11mo	$290,000	$247	75
5607 Cassia Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (-2%)	7mo	$125,000	$113	65
5413 Palm Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,066 (-5%)	24mo	$280,000	$263	61
5707 Sunset Blvd	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (+8%)	8mo	$230,000	$189	58
5909 Seagrape Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,193 (+6%)	2mo	$316,500	$265	58
5717 Birch Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+11%)	8mo	$225,000	$181	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,843
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $16,077
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34982

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,969/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $84	+0% $5	+5% $-75	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-83	+0% $5	+5% $92	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $76	base $5	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5315 Hickory Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,045	$1.46	25d	1	0.08mi
5300 Seagrape Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	25d	1	0.28mi
330 Borraclough St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,175	$1.55	15d	1	0.96mi
341 Ashley St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$2,460	$2.18	25d	1	0.96mi
352 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	25d	1	1.04mi
355 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.5	1118	$2,500	$2.24	25d	1	1.05mi
203 Melton Dr Unit B Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	25d	1	1.08mi
4210 Gator Trace Cir Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1316	$2,100	$1.60	15d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $280,000 Pending 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $280,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $287,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $287,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $287,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $287,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $287,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $287,000 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $287,000
19. 2026-01-19
    listed $297,000 Active
20. 2026-01-06
    soldstatus $269,600
21. 2014-10-07
    historical
22. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus $59,000
23. 2011-03-29
    soldstatus $59,000 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    A LITTLE TLC WILL GO A LONG WAY TO MAKE THIS HOUSE A HOME! SOME FEATURES ARE LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING, PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD, SHED, BAY WINDOWS IN L/R AND KITCHEN, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2009, CORIAN COUNTERS IN KITCHEN......NO APPLIANCES! VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW!!! PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY! BUYER TO ASSUME WATER ASSESSMENT. NOT A FORECLOSURE OR SHORT SALE!!! CAN CLOSE QUICKLY!!!!!

24. 2011-03-19
    historical 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    A LITTLE TLC WILL GO A LONG WAY TO MAKE THIS HOUSE A HOME! SOME FEATURES ARE LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING, PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD, SHED, BAY WINDOWS IN L/R AND KITCHEN, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2009, CORIAN COUNTERS IN KITCHEN......NO APPLIANCES! VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW!!! PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY! BUYER TO ASSUME WATER ASSESSMENT. NOT A FORECLOSURE OR SHORT SALE!!! CAN CLOSE QUICKLY!!!!!

25. 2010-11-18
    listed $62,900 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    A LITTLE TLC WILL GO A LONG WAY TO MAKE THIS HOUSE A HOME! SOME FEATURES ARE LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING, PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD, SHED, BAY WINDOWS IN L/R AND KITCHEN, ROOF REPLACED IN 2005, NEWER HOT WATER HEATER 2009, CORIAN COUNTERS IN KITCHEN......NO APPLIANCES! VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW!!! PERFECT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY! BUYER TO ASSUME WATER ASSESSMENT. NOT A FORECLOSURE OR SHORT SALE!!! CAN CLOSE QUICKLY!!!!!

26. 2008-06-02
    listed $125,000
27. 1987-11-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,969
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,157
• After-tax cash flow: $1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian River Estates

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian River Estates, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 27,447
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,143
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1086.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.47%
• Current HPI: 397.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4000.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $287,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $297,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $269,600 Public Records
• 2014-10-07 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2011-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-29 Sold (MLS) $59,000 Beaches MLS
• 2011-03-19 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2010-11-18 Listed $62,900 Beaches MLS
• 2008-06-02 Listed $125,000 Beaches MLS
• 1987-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,969 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.