15000 Nordyke Ln · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2006 8,537 sqft lot $169/sqft · 16% below area Est $322k · 16% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*OPEN HOUSE MAY 23RD 11AM - 4PM* Welcome to 15000 Nordyke Ln in Austin, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,599 sq ft on a spacious 8,529 sq ft corner lot, in the sought-after Austin's Colony community. This well-maintained home offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a bright kitchen, and a private backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and just minutes from downtown Austin. Bienvenido a 15000 Nordyke Ln en Austin, una excelente oportunidad inmobiliaria que ofrece 3 recamaras, 2 banos y 1,599 pies cuadrados de construccion, situada en un amplio lote en esquina de 8,529 pies cuadrados dentro de la codiciada comunidad de Austin's Colony. Esta propiedad, bien conservada, presenta una distribucion funcional con areas de sala y comedor confortables, una cocina luminosa y un patio trasero privado ideal para el esparcimiento o para recibir invitados. Su ubicacion privilegiada brinda facil acceso a principales vias de comunicacion, zonas comerciales, restaurantes y se encuentra a pocos minutos del centro de Austin.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Private backyard
• Functional layout

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• SOUGHT-AFTER COMMUNITY
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,451 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,450
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -16.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15108 Walcott Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+1%)	3mo	$280,000	$173	87
801 Silver Wing Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+4%)	4mo	$299,900	$181	83
15208 Walcott Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-6%)	5mo	$285,000	$189	76
15101 Nordyke Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,807 (+13%)	2mo	$289,900	$160	68
14505 Sandifer St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-5%)	4mo	$250,000	$165	67
3606 Chappie Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-5%)	4mo	$285,000	$188	65
4700 Fallenash Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,691 (+6%)	3mo	$250,000	$148	64
3509 Chappie Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	4mo	$279,000	$199	52
14205 Highsmith St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,442 (-10%)	6mo	$225,000	$156	51
3305 Tilmon Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-5%)	8mo	$275,000	$181	50
14500 Deaf Smith Blvd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (-4%)	7mo	$295,000	$193	50
15100 Custis Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-8%)	4mo	$279,999	$191	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,367
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-110,462
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,154/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $212,246

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-174	-5% $-251	+0% $-327	+5% $-403	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-406	+0% $-327	+5% $-248	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-258	base $-327	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Silver Wing Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$2,100	$1.05	44d	1	0.11mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.19mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	24d	1	0.19mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.20mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	22d	1	0.20mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	0.22mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	44d	1	0.23mi
4613 Graceful Ln #500 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.35mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.35mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	24d	1	0.35mi
4603 Truth Way Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,750	$1.51	44d	1	0.37mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	24d	1	0.39mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	44d	1	0.44mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	4d	1	0.47mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	0.47mi
4606 Kind Way #285 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,750	$1.48	44d	1	0.50mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	2d	1	0.52mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	4d	1	0.52mi
4621 Kind Way #271 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,499	$1.26	4d	1	0.53mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	4d	1	0.54mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	44d	1	0.54mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.55mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	24d	1	0.55mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	4d	1	0.55mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	16d	1	0.58mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	44d	1	0.59mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	44d	1	0.60mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	2d	1	0.61mi
4500 Secure Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,700	$1.11	11d	1	0.67mi
14908 Ben Davis Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2029	$1,995	$0.98	16d	1	0.69mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	44d	1	0.69mi
3403 Caleb Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.72mi
4519 Felicity Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1333	$1,695	$1.27	24d	1	0.74mi
15120 Arizona Oak Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,750	$1.32	4d	1	0.78mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	22d	1	0.82mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	24d	1	0.82mi
14909 Custis Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	44d	1	0.83mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	4d	1	0.86mi
15001 Bigelow Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1771	$1,850	$1.04	4d	1	0.90mi
14912 Hartsmith Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2142	$2,399	$1.12	44d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $270,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $270,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $270,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $270,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-04-21
   listed $270,000 New 1123-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1123 chars)

   *OPEN HOUSE MAY 23RD 11AM - 4PM* Welcome to 15000 Nordyke Ln in Austin, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,599 sq ft on a spacious 8,529 sq ft corner lot, in the sought-after Austin's Colony community. This well-maintained home offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a bright kitchen, and a private backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and just minutes from downtown Austin. Bienvenido a 15000 Nordyke Ln en Austin, una excelente oportunidad inmobiliaria que ofrece 3 recamaras, 2 banos y 1,599 pies cuadrados de construccion, situada en un amplio lote en esquina de 8,529 pies cuadrados dentro de la codiciada comunidad de Austin's Colony. Esta propiedad, bien conservada, presenta una distribucion funcional con areas de sala y comedor confortables, una cocina luminosa y un patio trasero privado ideal para el esparcimiento o para recibir invitados. Su ubicacion privilegiada brinda facil acceso a principales vias de comunicacion, zonas comerciales, restaurantes y se encuentra a pocos minutos del centro de Austin.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,154 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,941 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,154
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$8,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $270,000 LERA

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,154 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.