703 E Frontier St #31 · Payson, AZ 85541

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 965 sqft · Manufactured · 201 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition $93/sqft · 20% above area Est $75k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the desert heat and embrace the mountain lifestyle in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Payson. Nestled among the pines in a friendly 55+ community, you'll enjoy cooler temperatures, stunning natural beauty, and the relaxed pace of small-town Arizona living, all with convenient access to shopping, dining, and medical services. Lot rent is $450/mo. Additional monthly fees include water (metered, base rate $59), sewer ($34 flat), and trash (~$10-$13). Estimated total: approximately $560-$570/mo. Pet fee is $15/pet/mo if applicable (2-pet max).

Key facts

• Nearby trails
• In-home laundry
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• IN-HOME LAUNDRY
• NEARBY TRAILS
• LOCAL LAKES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.46%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,156
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 19.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 E Mckamey St	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	945 (-2%)	8mo	$345,000	$365	76
705 E Miller Rd #43	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	938 (-3%)	1mo	$60,500	$64	71
107 E Bonita St #16	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-0%)	2mo	$53,000	$55	66
705 E Miller Rd #30	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+2%)	16mo	$80,000	$82	63
703 E Frontier St St #25	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	832 (-14%)	15mo	$100,000	$120	60
705 E Miller Rd #10	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+2%)	21mo	$94,000	$96	58
705 E Miller Rd #18	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	850 (-12%)	2mo	$17,995	$21	55
705 E Miller Rd #42	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-13%)	6mo	$66,000	$79	50
903 N Granite Dells Rd #28	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-7%)	19mo	$82,000	$91	42
202 S Thomas Ln	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-7%)	12mo	$105,500	$118	40
1006 S Ponderosa St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+9%)	21mo	$260,000	$246	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $35,500
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $95,458
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $848	-5% $817	+0% $786	+5% $755	+10% $724
Rent	-10% $645	-5% $715	+0% $786	+5% $856	+10% $926
Rate	-1.0pp $831	-0.5pp $809	base $786	+0.5pp $762	+1.0pp $739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 E Frontier St Unit 43 Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	44d	1	0.16mi
801 E Frontier St Apt 49 Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	44d	1	0.16mi
801 E Frontier St Apt 05 Payson, AZ	2.0	1.5	940	$1,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.16mi
512 W Longhorn Rd Unit 4 Payson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	44d	1	1.11mi
1015 S Goodfellow Rd Payson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,000	$1.83	22d	1	1.16mi
333 N McLane Rd Payson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$2,080	$1.73	14d	2	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 181 DOM
16. 2025-12-01
    listed $89,900 Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Escape the desert heat and embrace the mountain lifestyle in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Payson. Nestled among the pines in a friendly 55+ community, you'll enjoy cooler temperatures, stunning natural beauty, and the relaxed pace of small-town Arizona living, all with convenient access to shopping, dining, and medical services. Lot rent is $450/mo. Additional monthly fees include water (metered, base rate $59), sewer ($34 flat), and trash (~$10-$13). Estimated total: approximately $560-$570/mo. Pet fee is $15/pet/mo if applicable (2-pet max).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $8,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,041
• After-tax cash flow: $7,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Payson requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Moderate interior paint — Some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair siding — Improves home's appearance and value
• Both update interior paint — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior paint · Some discoloration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$6,000–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair siding — Improves home's appearance and value ↑
• Both update interior paint — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $89,900 WMMLS