8806 Union St · Needville, TX 77461

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1975 0.38 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity in the growing city of Needville! This home is located close to the fire dept, just over a half mile away from Needville Elementary School, about a block away from Lowe's Market (local grocery store), close to Boutiques, Restaurants, Doctor Offices, Post Office, Daycares, and More. The home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Full bathroom, Nice sized living room with vaulted ceiling and is open to the kitchen, a kitchen with island, and a flex room. This home is situated on 2.5 lots providing a very nice sized yard for family and friends to gather and enjoy. The back yard is fenced and provides a covered patio. Although this home needs some love and cosmetic work, there have

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Close to post office
• Close to boutiques

Tags

• HALF MILE FROM SCHOOL
• BLOCK AWAY FROM GROCERY STORE
• CLOSE TO BOUTIQUES
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO DOCTOR OFFICES
• CLOSE TO POST OFFICE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1975
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen area (approx. 14 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — approx. 12 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 11 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 11 x 11; Bonus room (first floor) — approx. 12 x 11; Living room (first floor) — approx. 18 x 16
• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.5% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.39%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4802 Pearl Crescent Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+6%)	4mo	$312,990	$165	71
4810 Pearl Crescent Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+6%)	4mo	$308,990	$163	70
4819 Pearl Crescent Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,949 (+9%)	5mo	$325,990	$167	70
4814 Pearl Crescent Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-11%)	5mo	$297,990	$186	67
3339 Terry St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+10%)	3mo	$335,900	$170	63
9525 Gene St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+3%)	4mo	$297,500	$161	61
4818 Pearl Crescent Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,060 (+15%)	4mo	$330,990	$161	55
8718 Rowen Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-11%)	4mo	$289,000	$182	52
8903 Milby St	0.73mi	3/3.5	1,600 (-11%)	2mo	$279,999	$175	40
14120 Fm1236 Rd	0.72mi	3/3.5	1,583 (-12%)	1mo	$279,999	$177	40
9507 Highland Pointe Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,060 (+15%)	4mo	$345,000	$167	34
7810 Church St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,560 (-13%)	6mo	$189,900	$122	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,228
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $61,439
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,034/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9723 Highland Pointe Dr Needville, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	5d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,034 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,034 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$4,034
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $5,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $5,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Needville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Listed $179,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,034 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.