2197 An County Road 431 · Palestine, TX 75861

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1999 3.00 ac lot $25/sqft · 93% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is in as-is condition and will need extensive updates and repairs, ideal opportunity for a buyer looking to customize and renovate. Bring your vision and create a place your family will be able to call home

Key facts

• Extensive updates
• 3 acre lot
• Built 1999

Tags

• EXTENSIVE UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.9% in Palestine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#657 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Palestine ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #509 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Anderson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.72%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $954,512
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -92.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $44,013
• Equity at exit: $30,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $106,800
• Equity at exit: $47,143

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75861

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $70,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    This home is in as-is condition and will need extensive updates and repairs, ideal opportunity for a buyer looking to customize and renovate. Bring your vision and create a place your family will be able to call home

17. 2026-04-01
    price $75,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    This home is in as-is condition and will need extensive updates and repairs, ideal opportunity for a buyer looking to customize and renovate. Bring your vision and create a place your family will be able to call home

18. 2026-02-23
    price $80,000 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    This home is in as-is condition and will need extensive updates and repairs, ideal opportunity for a buyer looking to customize and renovate. Bring your vision and create a place your family will be able to call home

19. 2026-01-23
    listed $100,000 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    This home is in as-is condition and will need extensive updates and repairs, ideal opportunity for a buyer looking to customize and renovate. Bring your vision and create a place your family will be able to call home

20. 2002-04-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $5,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palestine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,881
• Composite: 30.34/100
• National rank: #6267
• State rank: #509 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palestine

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #12357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,531
• Population (ZIP): 1,225

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,663 people
• By 2030: 57,373 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 58,960 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 59,073 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 53,737 · -5.2%
• By 2100: 42,516 · -25.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 106.7631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $70,000 PAOR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $75,000 PAOR
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $80,000 PAOR
• 2026-01-23 Listed $100,000 PAOR
• 2002-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,725 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.