3886 Poit Dr · Lapeer, MI 48446

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1968 0.42 ac lot $142/sqft · 9% below area Est $275k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This spacious four-bedroom, two full-bath home is ready for it's new owners complete with keys at closing. The layout features both a comfortable living room and a separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The kitchen with adjoining dining area provides a warm and inviting place to gather with family and friends. A full basement adds valuable extra space for storage, hobbies, or the potential to finish for additional living area. Outside, you'll find a large two-car garage and a nearly half-acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. The property includes a swing set and multi-level deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. A mature peach tree offers a fresh taste of summer right in your own backyard. For added peace of mind, the home also features a Generac generator system. Don't miss your chance to make this wonderful home your own!

Key facts

• Full basement
• Multi-level deck
• Mature peach tree

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• LARGE TWO-CAR GARAGE
• NEARLY HALF-ACRE CORNER LOT
• MULTI-LEVEL DECK
• MATURE PEACH TREE
• GENERAC GENERATOR SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-726/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lapeer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#231 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D, commute F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $250k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $176,803 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,852
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -9.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3886 Poit Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,760 (0%)	0mo	$230,000	$131	100
3530 Davison Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (-3%)	6mo	$255,000	$150	52
70 Sterling Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,700 (-3%)	9mo	$242,800	$143	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,486
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,263
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48446

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $511/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,845

Max offer price $239,216

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 889-char remark

   Show marketing remark (901 chars)

   Welcome home! This spacious four-bedroom, two full-bath home is ready for it's new owners complete with keys at closing. The layout features both a comfortable living room and a separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The kitchen with adjoining dining area provides a warm and inviting place to gather with family and friends. A full basement adds valuable extra space for storage, hobbies, or the potential to finish for additional living area. Outside, you’ll find a large two-car garage and a nearly half-acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. The property includes a swing set and multi-level deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. A mature peach tree offers a fresh taste of summer right in your own backyard. For added peace of mind, the home also features a Generac generator system. Don’t miss your chance to make this wonderful home your own!

2. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 901-char remark

   Show marketing remark (901 chars)

   Welcome home! This spacious four-bedroom, two full-bath home is ready for it's new owners complete with keys at closing. The layout features both a comfortable living room and a separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The kitchen with adjoining dining area provides a warm and inviting place to gather with family and friends. A full basement adds valuable extra space for storage, hobbies, or the potential to finish for additional living area. Outside, you’ll find a large two-car garage and a nearly half-acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. The property includes a swing set and multi-level deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. A mature peach tree offers a fresh taste of summer right in your own backyard. For added peace of mind, the home also features a Generac generator system. Don’t miss your chance to make this wonderful home your own!

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $249,900 Active 901-char remark

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Welcome home! This spacious four-bedroom, two full-bath home is ready for it's new owners complete with keys at closing. The layout features both a comfortable living room and a separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The kitchen with adjoining dining area provides a warm and inviting place to gather with family and friends. A full basement adds valuable extra space for storage, hobbies, or the potential to finish for additional living area. Outside, you'll find a large two-car garage and a nearly half-acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. The property includes a swing set and multi-level deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. A mature peach tree offers a fresh taste of summer right in your own backyard. For added peace of mind, the home also features a Generac generator system. Don't miss your chance to make this wonderful home your own!

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $249,900 Active 889-char remark

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Welcome home! This spacious four-bedroom, two full-bath home is ready for it's new owners complete with keys at closing. The layout features both a comfortable living room and a separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The kitchen with adjoining dining area provides a warm and inviting place to gather with family and friends. A full basement adds valuable extra space for storage, hobbies, or the potential to finish for additional living area. Outside, you'll find a large two-car garage and a nearly half-acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. The property includes a swing set and multi-level deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. A mature peach tree offers a fresh taste of summer right in your own backyard. For added peace of mind, the home also features a Generac generator system. Don't miss your chance to make this wonderful home your own!

5. 2026-04-09
   historical

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Welcome home! This spacious four-bedroom, two full-bath home is ready for it's new owners complete with keys at closing. The layout features both a comfortable living room and a separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The kitchen with adjoining dining area provides a warm and inviting place to gather with family and friends. A full basement adds valuable extra space for storage, hobbies, or the potential to finish for additional living area. Outside, you'll find a large two-car garage and a nearly half-acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. The property includes a swing set and multi-level deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. A mature peach tree offers a fresh taste of summer right in your own backyard. For added peace of mind, the home also features a Generac generator system. Don't miss your chance to make this wonderful home your own!

6. 2026-04-09
   historical

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Welcome home! This spacious four-bedroom, two full-bath home is ready for it's new owners complete with keys at closing. The layout features both a comfortable living room and a separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The kitchen with adjoining dining area provides a warm and inviting place to gather with family and friends. A full basement adds valuable extra space for storage, hobbies, or the potential to finish for additional living area. Outside, you'll find a large two-car garage and a nearly half-acre corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. The property includes a swing set and multi-level deck, perfect for outdoor entertaining. A mature peach tree offers a fresh taste of summer right in your own backyard. For added peace of mind, the home also features a Generac generator system. Don't miss your chance to make this wonderful home your own!

7. 2026-03-17
   listed $274,900 Active
8. 2026-03-17
   listed $274,900 Active
9. 2026-03-13
   historical
10. 2009-10-23
    soldstatus $81,000
11. 2009-10-23
    soldstatus $81,000
12. 2009-09-04
    historical
13. 2009-09-01
    listed $71,000
14. 2009-09-01
    listed $71,000
15. 2007-06-26
    historical
16. 2007-01-10
    listed $179,900
17. 2007-01-09
    historical
18. 2006-11-16
    listed $179,900
19. 2006-11-13
    historical
20. 2006-06-22
    listed $179,900
21. 2002-03-04
    historical
22. 2001-07-27
    listed $164,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $511 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,180 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,669/yr (+$139/mo · 326.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$511
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,250
• After-tax cash flow: $524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapeer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621180
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,749
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5113
• State rank: #202 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lapeer

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #5855

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lapeer County · 30,581 people
• City population: 30,581
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,581
• Household income: $66,062
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.58%
• Current HPI: 212.3665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+51.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Listed $249,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Listed $249,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $274,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $274,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-13 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-10-23 Sold (MLS) $81,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-10-23 Sold (MLS) $81,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-09-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-01 Listed $71,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-01 Listed $71,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-06-26 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-01-10 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-01-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-11-16 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-11-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-06-22 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-03-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2001-07-27 Listed $164,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $511 · -55.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.