10495 Frontier · Cherry Valley, CA 92223

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1974 4,792 sqft lot Est $279k · 5% under $185/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEARLY NEW CARPET, MIRRORED CLOSET DOOR IN MSTR BDRM. DBL SINKS IN BATH. TUB & SHOWER ARE SEPARATE. SIDE/SIDE REFRIGERATOR, ISLAND STOVE TOP. TWO FRUIT TREES IN BACK. 8X13 ENCLOSED ROOM VERY NICE CONDITION. 55+ COMMUNITY INCLUDES AMENITIES & GOLF COURSE. ADD-ON ROOM IS 8X13.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: golf course, hiking, fishing, street lighting, storm drains
• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Highland Springs Village association; Monthly association fee ($185); Senior community; Association amenities include: golf, pool, spa, clubhouse, gym/exercise room, banquet/card/meeting rooms, billiard room, bocce ball, tennis, pickleball, outdoor cooking area, recreational multipurpose room

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Year built reported by assessor
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; Association pool; Level lot with street access; Front yard and back yard; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry on main level; Bonus room; Living room; Den; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in Cherry Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,107 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $265k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,739

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.84%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41238 Cheyenne Trl	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	4mo	$220,000	$150	84
10514 Arapahoe Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$296,000	$206	83
40862 Laredo Trl	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$240,000	$167	80
40798 Cheyenne Trl	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$325,000	$226	77
10321 Chisholm Trl	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$245,000	$170	76
10255 Frontier Trl	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	11mo	$292,750	$197	75
10165-10165 Frontier Trl	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$245,000	$182	73
40972 Cheyenne Trl	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$235,000	$163	72
10015 Comanche Cir	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	13mo	$310,000	$212	64
10420 Chisholm Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$195,000	$145	64
10493 Overland Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+14%)	6mo	$325,000	$198	61
40801 Cheyenne Trl	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,624 (+13%)	10mo	$315,000	$194	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-21,593
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $15,324
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92223

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$185
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,269

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9985 Frontier Trl Cherry Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,300	$2.18	17d	1	0.41mi
39670 Grand Ave Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,595	$1.64	2d	1	1.23mi
39559 Cherry Valley Blvd Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,900	$1.56	44d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $185 · $2,220/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,014 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$727/yr (+$61/mo · 56.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,541
• − Management: −$2,541
• − HOA: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $3,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cherry Valley

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #25562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cherry Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,833
• Household income: $102,761
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -395.13%
• Current HPI: 373.4608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+176.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2003-03-31 Sold (MLS) $92,000 CRMLS
• 2001-11-08 Listed $96,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,287 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.