16 Catskill Ct · Toms River, NJ 08753

$285,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1968 6,098 sqft lot $266/sqft · at area comps Est $291k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this tastefully renovated 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence in a peaceful 55+ community. Enjoy cooking in the beautifully updated kitchen featuring new cabinetry and modern finishes. The front Florida room provides a light-filled space ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. A long driveway offers plenty of parking for you and your guests. This charming home combines comfort, style, and convenience in a wonderful community setting.

Key facts

• Florida room
• Renovated kitchen
• Long driveway

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• FLORIDA ROOM
• LONG DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($660/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Dover Elementary School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #513 of 1,303 statewide, top 40%, 394 students, 33% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,327 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,044
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -2.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Acapulco Pl	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,072 (0%)	1mo	$269,900	$252	93
2240 Yorktowne Blvd	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,072 (0%)	0mo	$220,000	$205	73
1190B Clydebank Ct	0.30mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$255	71
1010 Fife Ct Unit B	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,036 (-3%)	1mo	$243,000	$235	71
1190A Clydebank Ct	0.31mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	1mo	$260,000	$265	71
23 Mount Dashan Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+2%)	1mo	$332,500	$304	70
1873 Hovsons Blvd	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	0mo	$227,500	$228	69
15 Mount Logan Ln	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	1mo	$375,000	$375	68
1134A Argyll Cir	0.37mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	2mo	$239,000	$243	67
1108A Argyll Cir	0.45mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	1mo	$246,000	$251	64
1236B Hamilton Ct	0.66mi	2/1.0	982 (-8%)	2mo	$180,000	$183	54
14 Thames Pl	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,222 (+14%)	2mo	$332,500	$272	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,336
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,402
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $136	+0% $55	+5% $-26	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-41	+0% $55	+5% $151	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $128	base $55	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	5d	1	0.88mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	20d	1	1.04mi
73 S Shore Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	960	$2,975	$3.10	45d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $295,000 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Welcome to this tastefully renovated 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence in a peaceful 55+ community. Enjoy cooking in the beautifully updated kitchen featuring new cabinetry and modern finishes. The front Florida room provides a light-filled space ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. A long driveway offers plenty of parking for you and your guests. This charming home combines comfort, style, and convenience in a wonderful community setting.

17. 2025-10-22
    price $295,000
18. 2025-09-28
    listed $305,000 Active
19. 2025-04-15
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed
20. 2025-04-15
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed
21. 2025-03-27
    status Pending
22. 2025-03-27
    status Pending
23. 2025-03-26
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-03-17
    listed $235,000 Active
25. 2025-03-14
    listed $235,000 Active
26. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $122,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,760 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,928 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,168/yr (+$181/mo · 78.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $1,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+140.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $295,000 MOMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $295,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $305,000 MOMLS
• 2025-04-15 Sold (MLS) $230,000 MOMLS
• 2025-04-15 Sold (MLS) $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-27 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-03-26 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $235,000 MOMLS
• 2021-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,760 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.