17016 Rancho Escondido · Lytle, TX 78002

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2024 0.61 ac lot $131/sqft · 26% below area Est $336k · 26% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must-see home on a large .6138 lot space, comfort, and tranquility all in one place. This well-cared-for 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a warm, inviting layout with room for everyone, whether you're hosting, working from home, or simply spreading out and enjoying everyday life. Located outside city limits, you'll love the peaceful setting and the extra breathing room that comes with it. Perfect for anyone craving a quieter lifestyle without giving up convenience of getting to the city in about 15-20 mins. If you've been searching for a home that's move-in ready, spacious, and set on a generously sized lot, this one deserves a spot at the top of your list. This one won't last.

Key facts

• Large lot space
• Generously sized lot
• 0.61 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT SPACE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,009 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,265
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -25.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-56,258
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-69,483
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78002

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,147/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,116

Max offer price $204,880

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $249,000 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Must-see home on a large .6138 lot space, comfort, and tranquility all in one place. This well-cared-for 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a warm, inviting layout with room for everyone, whether you're hosting, working from home, or simply spreading out and enjoying everyday life. Located outside city limits, you'll love the peaceful setting and the extra breathing room that comes with it. Perfect for anyone craving a quieter lifestyle without giving up convenience of getting to the city in about 15-20 mins. If you've been searching for a home that's move-in ready, spacious, and set on a generously sized lot, this one deserves a spot at the top of your list. This one won't last.

15. 2026-04-08
    price $259,000 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Must-see home on a large .6138 lot space, comfort, and tranquility all in one place. This well-cared-for 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a warm, inviting layout with room for everyone, whether you're hosting, working from home, or simply spreading out and enjoying everyday life. Located outside city limits, you'll love the peaceful setting and the extra breathing room that comes with it. Perfect for anyone craving a quieter lifestyle without giving up convenience of getting to the city in about 15-20 mins. If you've been searching for a home that's move-in ready, spacious, and set on a generously sized lot, this one deserves a spot at the top of your list. This one won't last.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $249,000 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Must-see home on a large .6138 lot space, comfort, and tranquility all in one place. This well-cared-for 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a warm, inviting layout with room for everyone, whether you're hosting, working from home, or simply spreading out and enjoying everyday life. Located outside city limits, you'll love the peaceful setting and the extra breathing room that comes with it. Perfect for anyone craving a quieter lifestyle without giving up convenience of getting to the city in about 15-20 mins. If you've been searching for a home that's move-in ready, spacious, and set on a generously sized lot, this one deserves a spot at the top of your list. This one won't last.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $269,000 New 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Must-see home on a large .6138 lot space, comfort, and tranquility all in one place. This well-cared-for 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a warm, inviting layout with room for everyone, whether you're hosting, working from home, or simply spreading out and enjoying everyday life. Located outside city limits, you'll love the peaceful setting and the extra breathing room that comes with it. Perfect for anyone craving a quieter lifestyle without giving up convenience of getting to the city in about 15-20 mins. If you've been searching for a home that's move-in ready, spacious, and set on a generously sized lot, this one deserves a spot at the top of your list. This one won't last.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,147 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,409/yr (+$117/mo · 44.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,147
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$7,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,482

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.59%
• Current HPI: 338.8833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $249,000 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $259,000 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $249,000 LERA
• 2026-03-14 Listed $269,000 LERA