1016 Gotham St · Watertown, NY 13601

$52,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 989 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1905 6,125 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 1016 Gotham St in Watertown! This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers 989 square feet of potential and is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Built in 1905, this two story property sits on a 0.14 acre lot and features a detached two car garage, enclosed porch, and full basement. Inside, the home is ready for renovation, giving you the chance to design and update to your own style. Located in a neighborhood setting near public transportation, this property offers convenience and strong upside value. Bring your vision and restore this home to its full potential.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Neighborhood setting
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• DETACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• FULL BASEMENT
• NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $52,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.72%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,009
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1016 Gotham St	0.00mi	3/1.0	989 (0%)	1mo	$52,000	$53	99
400 Pawling St	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,010 (+2%)	20mo	$135,000	$134	60
1202 Sherman St	0.70mi	3/1.5	994 (+0%)	6mo	$215,000	$216	59
401 Pawling St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	880 (-11%)	10mo	$159,000	$181	55
232 Haley St	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,114 (+13%)	10mo	$210,000	$189	52
1137 Franklin St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (-12%)	10mo	$110,000	$127	50
18451 County Route 162	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,065 (+8%)	19mo	$218,450	$205	42
137 Barben Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,043 (+6%)	16mo	$169,300	$162	38
1366 Washington St	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,107 (+12%)	5mo	$191,000	$173	35
1106 Harrison St	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,124 (+14%)	15mo	$210,000	$187	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $42,893
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.78×
• Total profit: $127,844
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,535/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	0.62mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.74mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.85mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	44d	1	1.01mi
2240 Kristina Park Watertown, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$1,615	$1.51	44d	5	1.03mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,440	$1.00	44d	9	1.22mi
1815 Olmstead Dr Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1380	$1,462	$1.06	44d	6	1.28mi
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-01
   listed $52,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,535 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,535 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$1,535
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $7,948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $6,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $52,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,535 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.