347 S 16th St · Coolidge, AZ 85128

$265,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2004 5,866 sqft lot $115/sqft · 17% below area Est $322k · 17% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This HUD Home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with a spacious, functional layout and excellent potential. The OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN and LIVING ROOM create a seamless flow, while GENEROUS LIVING AREAS provide ample space for. ENTERTAINING and EVERYDAY LIVING. A FULL BEDROOM AND BATH DOWNSTAIRS offers ideal NEXT GEN LIVING OPTIONS, perfect for guests, multigenerational living, or added privacy. Enjoy the neighborhood parks in HEARTLAND RANCH and the added bonus of this home BACKING A COMMUNITY WALKING PATH.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Ample space
• 5,866 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GENEROUS LIVING AREAS
• AMPLE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $266k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 260 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,630 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,565
• List price: $265,500
• Delta: -17.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1707 W Harding Ave	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,301 (0%)	2mo	$310,000	$135	91
1629 W Wilson Ave	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,337 (+2%)	8mo	$292,500	$125	86
166 S 18th St	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,337 (+2%)	2mo	$275,000	$118	83
2119 W Central Ave	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,288 (-0%)	4mo	$287,500	$126	73
2113 W Central Ave	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,288 (-0%)	7mo	$300,000	$131	72
161 S 21st St	0.37mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,287 (-1%)	4mo	$299,000	$131	71
113 S 21st St	0.39mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,288 (-0%)	6mo	$317,000	$139	69
1744 W Pinkley Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,151 (-6%)	2mo	$289,999	$135	64
2252 W Broadway Ave	0.66mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,288 (-0%)	8mo	$249,000	$109	54
544 N 14th Dr	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,076 (-10%)	3mo	$368,470	$177	53
2003 W Pinkley Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,034 (-12%)	6mo	$280,000	$138	49
1408 W Bealey Ave	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,076 (-10%)	4mo	$359,990	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-55,915
• Equity at exit: $39,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-75,811
• Equity at exit: $22,956

Cash invested: $74,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85128

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,392
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,124

Max offer price $240,734

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,375
• Closing costs: $7,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 W Central Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1903	$1,749	$0.92	43d	1	0.22mi
1633 W Pinkley Ct Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1906	$1,800	$0.94	43d	1	0.29mi
1286 W Roosevelt Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1604	$1,649	$1.03	20d	1	0.34mi
110 N Cholla Coolidge, AZ	5.0	3.0	3132	$2,000	$0.64	15d	1	0.36mi
1366 W Pinkley Way Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1907	$2,050	$1.07	21d	1	0.42mi
1206 W Prior Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1938	$1,795	$0.93	43d	1	0.42mi
1209 W Seagoe Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,695	$1.05	43d	1	0.45mi
1304 W Byrd Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1775	$1,725	$0.97	24d	1	0.59mi
1304 W Byrd Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1775	$1,725	$0.97	20d	1	0.59mi
2234 W Central Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.5	2011	$1,765	$0.88	43d	1	0.61mi
2233 W Broadway Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	2288	$1,790	$0.78	5d	1	0.63mi
2233 W Broadway Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.5	2288	$1,735	$0.76	43d	1	0.63mi
651 N 13th Pl Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.5	1858	$2,300	$1.24	5d	1	0.66mi
1330 W Hess Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,795	$1.00	43d	1	0.93mi
1653 W Hopi Dr Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,620	$0.92	43d	1	0.97mi
1707 W Hopi Dr Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,095	$1.22	43d	1	0.98mi
1505 S Navajo Ln Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.5	1743	$1,700	$0.98	43d	1	1.07mi
1019 W Hess Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1590	$1,700	$1.07	43d	1	1.09mi
855 W Taylor Ave Coolidge, AZ	5.0	3.0	2500	$2,050	$0.82	43d	1	1.17mi
611 W Verde Ln Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,395	$0.83	43d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,500 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,500 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,500 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,500 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,500 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,500 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,500 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,500 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,500 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,500 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,500 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $265,500 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $295,000 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    This HUD Home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with a spacious, functional layout and excellent potential. The OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN and LIVING ROOM create a seamless flow, while GENEROUS LIVING AREAS provide ample space for. ENTERTAINING and EVERYDAY LIVING. A FULL BEDROOM AND BATH DOWNSTAIRS offers ideal NEXT GEN LIVING OPTIONS, perfect for guests, multigenerational living, or added privacy. Enjoy the neighborhood parks in HEARTLAND RANCH and the added bonus of this home BACKING A COMMUNITY WALKING PATH.

16. 2025-04-24
    historical
17. 2025-04-09
    price $320,000
18. 2025-01-07
    price $340,000
19. 2024-12-31
    price $342,000
20. 2024-12-23
    price $344,000
21. 2024-12-16
    price $346,000
22. 2024-12-09
    price $348,000
23. 2024-11-04
    listed $350,000 Active
24. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $359,900 Closed
25. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $359,900
26. 2021-10-23
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
27. 2021-10-23
    status Active
28. 2021-10-04
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
29. 2021-10-01
    listed $359,900 Active
30. 2017-04-18
    soldstatus $149,900 Closed
31. 2017-04-18
    soldstatus $149,000
32. 2017-03-15
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
33. 2017-03-10
    status Active
34. 2017-02-27
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
35. 2017-02-24
    listed $149,900 Active
36. 2004-08-02
    soldstatus $61,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,872
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$1,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,537
• After-tax cash flow: $-146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coolidge Unified District (4442)
• NCES district ID: 0402320
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,182
• Composite: 10.35/100
• National rank: #9787
• State rank: #229 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Coolidge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #22344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coolidge, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 19,487
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 19,487
• Household income: $65,477
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 29% Two or more races 22% Native American 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.95%
• Current HPI: 280.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+378.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $340,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $342,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Price Changed $344,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $346,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $348,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $359,900 Public Records
• 2021-11-23 Sold (MLS) $359,900 ARMLS
• 2021-10-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-10-23 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-10-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-10-01 Listed $359,900 ARMLS
• 2017-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-18 Sold (MLS) $149,900 ARMLS
• 2017-03-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-03-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2017-02-27 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-02-24 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2004-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $61,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,438 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.