8430 15th Pl SE #13 · Lake Stevens, WA 98258

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1990 21 ac lot $97/sqft · 24% below area Est $137k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the highly sought-after Premier 55+ Cardinal Estates Park! This charming home offers just under 1,100 square feet of comfortable living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The spacious primary suite easily accommodates a king-size bed and includes a walk-in closet. Enjoy the large sunroom off the kitchen, complete with separate heat for year-round enjoyment and direct access to the private backyard. The open living room flows into a generous kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. Additional features include a laundry room with storage, two separate storage areas, and plenty of parking. Accessibility is enhanced with a convenient ramp leading to the sunroom. R

Key facts

• Large sunroom
• Private back yard
• Rv storage on site

Tags

• LARGE SUNROOM
• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• RV STORAGE ON SITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: Fair
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Land lease: $1,102
• HOA & community: Located in Cardinal Estates manufactured home park; Park has 99 homes; Park amenities include common area and RV parking; Park approved for sale; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (PUD); Public power (PUD); Lake Stevens sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Model: 28x40, Make: Maro); One story; South-facing entry
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Patio/porch/deck; Paved lot; Back yard/carport storage location; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (includes 2 bathtubs and 2 showers)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Water heater (located in primary closet); Ceiling fans; Double pane windows; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Stevens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#51 in WA, #917 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Lake Stevens School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #31 of 291 in WA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 418 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $105k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.69%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,360
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -23.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1316 91st Ave SE #39	0.34mi	2/1.0	960 (-11%)	4mo	$113,000	$118	58
1316 91st Ave SE #33	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-14%)	8mo	$70,000	$76	48
1316 91st Ave SE #29	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+10%)	21mo	$201,000	$169	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $46,555
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $106,402
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98258

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,022/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,095

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7412 19th Pl SE Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,400	$1.02	4d	1	0.74mi
10227 20th St SE Lake Stevens, WA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,992	$2.76	1d	7	0.99mi
9504 Chapel Hill Rd Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,950	$2.20	5d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $105,000 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $120,000
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $150,000 Active
17. 2015-04-07
    status Pending
18. 2015-04-01
    status Pending Inspection
19. 2015-03-23
    listed Active
20. 2012-05-21
    historical
21. 2012-05-21
    soldstatus $46,500 Sold
22. 2012-05-04
    status Pending
23. 2012-04-24
    status Pending Inspection
24. 2012-04-17
    listed $46,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,022
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $12,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,918
• After-tax cash flow: $10,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Stevens School District
• NCES district ID: 5304200
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $78,301
• Composite: 58.12/100
• National rank: #2141
• State rank: #31 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Stevens

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #917

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Stevens, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 52,752
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 52,752
• Household income: $123,898
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 786.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -725.77%
• Current HPI: 303.8934
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+125.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $105,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-23 Listed — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-21 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-21 Sold (MLS) $46,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-17 Listed $46,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,022 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.