22038 Messina Springs Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$342,990

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $142/sqft · 10% below area Est $382k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 128 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $343k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,420 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,470
• List price: $342,990
• Delta: -10.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19067 Cetara Villa Dr	0.45mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (+5%)	4mo	$359,990	$143	63
22011 Giulia Village Dr	0.17mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	11mo	$359,040	$131	54
19554 Perissa Terrace Dr	0.25mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	12mo	$352,740	$129	49
21931 Corsica View Dr	0.22mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	17mo	$405,990	$149	46
22010 Villa Terrace Dr	0.47mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,657 (+10%)	21mo	$436,425	$164	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-79,315
• Equity at exit: $51,141

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-119,789
• Equity at exit: $29,656

Cash invested: $96,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,799
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$429 /mo · $5,145/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,000

Max offer price $306,842

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,748
• Closing costs: $10,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$3,070	$1.50	1d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $342,990 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $342,990 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $342,990 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $342,990 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $342,990 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $342,990 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $342,990 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $342,990 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $342,990 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,990 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,990 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $342,990 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $342,990 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-02-25
    price $342,990 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

15. 2026-02-10
    listed $343,990 Active 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,213
• − Property taxes: −$5,145
• − Insurance: −$1,715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − Depreciation: −$9,978
• Taxable loss: −$8,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home offers a spacious and modern floor plan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms improves functionality and appearance.
• Both Add backsplash in kitchen — A backsplash can add visual interest and protect the backs of cabinets from splashes and stains.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms improves functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Add backsplash in kitchen — A backsplash can add visual interest and protect the backs of cabinets from splashes and stains. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Listed $343,990 Zillow