35534 Forest Manor Ave · Watson, LA 70706

$230,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2025 7,797 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the Hickory, a single-story home available in Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Get all the space you need in the Hickory! Step inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom residence to find 1,500 square feet of living space. The layout includes two bedrooms, a guest bedroom, and a hallway leading to another bedroom with the HVAC system and linen closet. The open concept living area features a well-equipped kitchen with shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, and 3 cm granite countertops. A large corner pantry and separate laundry room add to the functionality of the space. The dining room is conveniently located next to the kitchen, while the living room is nearby, ensuring a seamless flow between the two areas. All bedrooms are provided with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a place for entertainment, organization, welcoming guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can be sure of feeling comfortable and content. Situated at the rear of the residence, the primary bedroom comes complete with its own en suite. The primary bathroom showcases a single vanity, a tub/shower combination, and a generous walk-in closet. Get in touch with us now and discover your new residence today!

Key facts

• Single story home
• Granite countertops
• 7,797 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE STORY HOME
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GOOSENECK PULLDOWN FAUCETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $230,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,478.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $231k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,046 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,478
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35489 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,506 (0%)	1mo	$230,900	$153	98
35510 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,576 (+5%)	2mo	$236,920	$150	91
35423 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (+3%)	1mo	$258,795	$167	88
35516 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-8%)	1mo	$227,900	$164	81
35429 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+10%)	1mo	$260,900	$157	80
35429 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+10%)	1mo	$256,900	$155	80
35606 Vandora Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (+3%)	2mo	$251,900	$163	80
35522 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	1mo	$221,900	$173	70
35528 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	1mo	$216,900	$169	69
35513 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	3mo	$221,900	$173	66
13017 Bayberry Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+7%)	0mo	$235,000	$145	49
13017 Bayberry Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+7%)	0mo	$230,000	$142	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,266
• Equity at exit: $36,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,582
• Equity at exit: $21,224

Cash invested: $68,734 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,287
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,682/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,193

Max offer price $245,478

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $170	+0% $86	+5% $1	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $-5	+0% $86	+5% $177	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $148	base $86	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,370
• Closing costs: $7,364
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35648 Avery Dr Denham Springs, LA	5.0	2.0	2077	$2,500	$1.20	19d	1	0.14mi
13111 Fowler Dr Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,700	$1.35	44d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-01
   price $230,900 1308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

   Experience the Hickory, a single-story home available in Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Get all the space you need in the Hickory! Step inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom residence to find 1,500 square feet of living space. The layout includes two bedrooms, a guest bedroom, and a hallway leading to another bedroom with the HVAC system and linen closet. The open concept living area features a well-equipped kitchen with shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, and 3 cm granite countertops. A large corner pantry and separate laundry room add to the functionality of the space. The dining room is conveniently located next to the kitchen, while the living room is nearby, ensuring a seamless flow between the two areas. All bedrooms are provided with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a place for entertainment, organization, welcoming guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can be sure of feeling comfortable and content. Situated at the rear of the residence, the primary bedroom comes complete with its own en suite. The primary bathroom showcases a single vanity, a tub/shower combination, and a generous walk-in closet. Get in touch with us now and discover your new residence today!

3. 2026-01-01
   price $230,900

   Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

   Experience the Hickory, a single-story home available in Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Get all the space you need in the Hickory! Step inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom residence to find 1,500 square feet of living space. The layout includes two bedrooms, a guest bedroom, and a hallway leading to another bedroom with the HVAC system and linen closet. The open concept living area features a well-equipped kitchen with shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, and 3 cm granite countertops. A large corner pantry and separate laundry room add to the functionality of the space. The dining room is conveniently located next to the kitchen, while the living room is nearby, ensuring a seamless flow between the two areas. All bedrooms are provided with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a place for entertainment, organization, welcoming guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can be sure of feeling comfortable and content. Situated at the rear of the residence, the primary bedroom comes complete with its own en suite. The primary bathroom showcases a single vanity, a tub/shower combination, and a generous walk-in closet. Get in touch with us now and discover your new residence today!

4. 2025-10-29
   listed $231,900 Active 1308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

   Experience the Hickory, a single-story home available in Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Get all the space you need in the Hickory! Step inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom residence to find 1,500 square feet of living space. The layout includes two bedrooms, a guest bedroom, and a hallway leading to another bedroom with the HVAC system and linen closet. The open concept living area features a well-equipped kitchen with shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, and 3 cm granite countertops. A large corner pantry and separate laundry room add to the functionality of the space. The dining room is conveniently located next to the kitchen, while the living room is nearby, ensuring a seamless flow between the two areas. All bedrooms are provided with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a place for entertainment, organization, welcoming guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can be sure of feeling comfortable and content. Situated at the rear of the residence, the primary bedroom comes complete with its own en suite. The primary bathroom showcases a single vanity, a tub/shower combination, and a generous walk-in closet. Get in touch with us now and discover your new residence today!

5. 2025-10-29
   listed $231,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

   Experience the Hickory, a single-story home available in Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Get all the space you need in the Hickory! Step inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom residence to find 1,500 square feet of living space. The layout includes two bedrooms, a guest bedroom, and a hallway leading to another bedroom with the HVAC system and linen closet. The open concept living area features a well-equipped kitchen with shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, and 3 cm granite countertops. A large corner pantry and separate laundry room add to the functionality of the space. The dining room is conveniently located next to the kitchen, while the living room is nearby, ensuring a seamless flow between the two areas. All bedrooms are provided with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a place for entertainment, organization, welcoming guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can be sure of feeling comfortable and content. Situated at the rear of the residence, the primary bedroom comes complete with its own en suite. The primary bathroom showcases a single vanity, a tub/shower combination, and a generous walk-in closet. Get in touch with us now and discover your new residence today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,751
• − Property taxes: −$3,682
• − Insurance: −$1,227
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,141
• Taxable loss: −$3,035
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$728
• After-tax cash flow: $1,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $230,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $230,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $231,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $231,900 AcadianaMLS