300 Horner St · Rio Communities, NM 87002

$235,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,090 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1973 0.50 ac lot $112/sqft · 17% below area Est $283k · 17% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Big home Very large corner lot has a comfortable floorplan. Great kitchen design. 3 way fireplace. laundry features a 3/4 bath. Perfect multigenerational home. Very large corner lot has many possibilities. Priced as an investment property.

Key facts

• Kitchen design
• 3 way fireplace
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• KITCHEN DESIGN
• 3 WAY FIREPLACE
• MULTIGENERATIONAL HOME

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected (community/coop); Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Flat roof; Resale property; Faces west
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Built by Horizon
• Exterior features: Private yard; Corner lot; City street frontage; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central forced-air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Double-pane, insulated windows; Main level primary bedroom; Custom wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-653/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Rio Communities — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#191 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Merced Elementary (437 students, 100% FRL); Belen Middle (528 students, 100% FRL); Belen High (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #61 of 110 statewide, top 61%, 1,027 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 83% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 24% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Belen Consolidated Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 428 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,308 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,886
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -16.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Godfrey Ave	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,231 (+7%)	14mo	$325,000	$146	74
109 Jarvis Pl	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,190 (+5%)	8mo	$399,900	$183	66
1335 Kaghan Loop Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,170 (+4%)	1mo	$315,000	$145	65
321 Hillandale Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,950 (-7%)	2mo	$335,000	$172	60
101 Largo Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,094 (+0%)	8mo	$214,000	$102	60
87 Nash St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,066 (-1%)	3mo	$274,500	$133	59
701 Carmel Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,039 (-2%)	2mo	$299,900	$147	57
220 Hillman St	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,397 (+15%)	4mo	$289,999	$121	56
1106 Perion Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,879 (-10%)	5mo	$299,500	$159	53
444 Aquina Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (-10%)	2mo	$285,000	$151	52
317 Hillandale Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,888 (-10%)	3mo	$240,000	$127	50
99 Logan St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,317 (+11%)	1mo	$265,000	$114	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,606
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-40,942
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87002

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,782/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $225,393

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $12	+0% $-54	+5% $-121	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-126	+0% $-54	+5% $17	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $5	base $-54	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $243,000 Active 239-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,782 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$98/yr (+$8/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,782
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belen Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500180
• Math proficiency: 19% —
• Reading proficiency: 28% —
• Median HH income: $38,445
• Composite: 22.79/100
• National rank: #13408
• State rank: #50 of 95 in NM

Livability — Rio Communities

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #22989

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Communities, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 21,265
• Household income: $51,961
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 31% Two or more races 28% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.62%
• Current HPI: 219.5581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $235,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $243,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,782 · +26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.