4069 S Pacific Hwy #103 · Phoenix, OR 97501

$107,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Land public records · 218 Days on market

Built 2025 $186/sqft · 24% above area Est $137k · 22% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

Key facts

• Fresh siding
• Great park setting
• Covered car port

Tags

• GREAT PARK SETTING
• CLEAN LINES
• FRESH SIDING
• COVERED CAR PORT
• OPEN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.7% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in OR, #884 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.61%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,000
• List price: $107,000
• Delta: -21.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,409
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $38,627
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $936

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $107,000 Pending 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $107,000 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $107,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $107,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $107,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $107,000 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $107,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

17. 2026-03-24
    price $108,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

18. 2026-02-17
    price $109,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

19. 2026-02-02
    price $115,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

20. 2026-01-19
    price $117,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

21. 2025-12-15
    price $119,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

22. 2025-11-12
    listed $124,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home in a great park setting. Exterior has clean lines with fresh siding and a covered car port. Interior feels bright and untouched. This 2 Bedroom 1 bath home has an open layout to make good use of the space. Simple yet comfortable and ready to move in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $3,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$835
• After-tax cash flow: $4,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #884

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 4,766
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $107,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $108,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $109,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $115,000 MLSCO
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $117,000 MLSCO
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $119,000 MLSCO
• 2025-11-12 Listed $124,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $101 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.