2045 Appleton Ave · Crystal, ND 58222

$42,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Other · 51 Days on market

Built 1950 0.32 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Fireplace charm
• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FIREPLACE CHARM
• FULL EXTERIOR SHELL UPDATE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 100 x 140 (14,000 sq ft)

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Has cooling
• Interior features: Central cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#262 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, crime D-.
• Valley-Edinburg 118 (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #65 of 169 in ND (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $40,740 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.04%
• DSCR: 4.74
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $57,528
• Equity at exit: $18,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.16×
• Total profit: $131,300
• Equity at exit: $29,104

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58222

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $348

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $847	-5% $836	+0% $824	+5% $812	+10% $800
Rent	-10% $714	-5% $769	+0% $824	+5% $879	+10% $934
Rate	-1.0pp $845	-0.5pp $834	base $824	+0.5pp $813	+1.0pp $802

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $42,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $42,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $42,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $46,900 Active
17. 2007-04-02
    soldstatus $59,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $450 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $450 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $9,787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,349
• After-tax cash flow: $7,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley-Edinburg 118
• NCES district ID: 3800397
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,751
• Composite: 43.11/100
• National rank: #6624
• State rank: #65 of 169 in ND

Livability — Crystal

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #18733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal, ND
• Population (ZIP): 250

Population outlook (Pembina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,414 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 5,383 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 4,925 · -23.2%
• By 2075: 5,025 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 6,293 · -1.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 24% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 30% Romanian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pembina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 22.8% · R 76.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+49.2 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-21.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $46,900 GFAAR
• 2007-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $450 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.