165 La Selva Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$424,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2023 0.57 ac lot $240/sqft · 7% below area Est $516k · 18% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come fall in love with this 4 bedroom home with a gorgeous kitchen and luxury stye bathrooms, This beautiful home on a half acre lot in Elgin offers a rare blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to the Austin metro. Enjoy a quiet, rural-style setting in this home which features a spacious lot, mature trees, and a sense of privacy that’s increasingly hard to find. This home has space to spread out, entertain, garden, feed the chickens or simply enjoy the outdoors. Convenient location offers easy access to major employers, the airport, and expanding areas like Taylor and Bastrop. Don't miss it!

Key facts

• Gorgeous kitchen
• Spacious lot
• Half acre lot

Tags

• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• LUXURY STYLE BATHROOMS
• HALF ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR EMPLOYERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (50.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (47.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (50.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington El (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 750 students, 89% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,213 (50.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.32%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $515,661
• List price: $424,999
• Delta: -17.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
194 Elgin Woods Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+2%)	9mo	$564,900	$312	56
153 Christensen Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,803 (+2%)	14mo	$490,000	$272	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $153,996
• Equity at exit: $382,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $515,340
• Equity at exit: $825,680

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$574 /mo · $6,888/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-1,222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,772

Max offer price $209,213

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-981	-5% $-1,101	+0% $-1,222	+5% $-1,342	+10% $-1,462
Rent	-10% $-1,397	-5% $-1,309	+0% $-1,222	+5% $-1,134	+10% $-1,046
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,007	-0.5pp $-1,113	base $-1,222	+0.5pp $-1,332	+1.0pp $-1,444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $424,999 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $424,999 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $424,999 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $424,999 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $424,999 Active Under Contract 44 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Come fall in love with this 4 bedroom home with a gorgeous kitchen and luxury stye bathrooms, This beautiful home on a half acre lot in Elgin offers a rare blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to the Austin metro. Enjoy a quiet, rural-style setting in this home which features a spacious lot, mature trees, and a sense of privacy that’s increasingly hard to find. This home has space to spread out, entertain, garden, feed the chickens or simply enjoy the outdoors. Convenient location offers easy access to major employers, the airport, and expanding areas like Taylor and Bastrop. Don't miss it!

7. 2026-05-01
   price $424,999 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Come fall in love with this 4 bedroom home with a gorgeous kitchen and luxury stye bathrooms, This beautiful home on a half acre lot in Elgin offers a rare blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to the Austin metro. Enjoy a quiet, rural-style setting in this home which features a spacious lot, mature trees, and a sense of privacy that’s increasingly hard to find. This home has space to spread out, entertain, garden, feed the chickens or simply enjoy the outdoors. Convenient location offers easy access to major employers, the airport, and expanding areas like Taylor and Bastrop. Don't miss it!

8. 2026-04-30
   price $429,999 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Come fall in love with this 4 bedroom home with a gorgeous kitchen and luxury stye bathrooms, This beautiful home on a half acre lot in Elgin offers a rare blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to the Austin metro. Enjoy a quiet, rural-style setting in this home which features a spacious lot, mature trees, and a sense of privacy that’s increasingly hard to find. This home has space to spread out, entertain, garden, feed the chickens or simply enjoy the outdoors. Convenient location offers easy access to major employers, the airport, and expanding areas like Taylor and Bastrop. Don't miss it!

9. 2026-04-17
   listed $435,000 Active 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Come fall in love with this 4 bedroom home with a gorgeous kitchen and luxury stye bathrooms, This beautiful home on a half acre lot in Elgin offers a rare blend of peaceful country living and convenient access to the Austin metro. Enjoy a quiet, rural-style setting in this home which features a spacious lot, mature trees, and a sense of privacy that’s increasingly hard to find. This home has space to spread out, entertain, garden, feed the chickens or simply enjoy the outdoors. Convenient location offers easy access to major employers, the airport, and expanding areas like Taylor and Bastrop. Don't miss it!

10. 2024-05-28
    soldstatus Closed 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Welcome To your Dream Home ! This Exquisite Home Offers A Modern and Contemporary Look , You will be greeted upon entry with Tall Ceilings, Custom Cabinets and Gourmet Kitchen with All Appliances to be Ready For Move In. On The Primary Suite, you will find a Large Walk -in Closet with a Full Bathroom. That has a Dual Vanity, Over Head Shower & Frameless Glass Doors. Additional to your Main Bedroom , you will find 3 Boasting Bedrooms all with Fan Ceilings. Spray Foam Insulation through the whole house! And Second Bathroom also Has over Head Showers & Glass Doors. Laundry Room is Ready to be connected to your Washer And Dryer, Now in Your Living & Dining Area you will find Endless Windows to View your Spectacular Back Yard! Home is Sitting on . 57 Acre , its ample lot can have endless possibilities , Back Yard has a Dual Entry. No HOA! With very low restrictions ! Great Tax Rate!

11. 2024-05-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Welcome To your Dream Home ! This Exquisite Home Offers A Modern and Contemporary Look , You will be greeted upon entry with Tall Ceilings, Custom Cabinets and Gourmet Kitchen with All Appliances to be Ready For Move In. On The Primary Suite, you will find a Large Walk -in Closet with a Full Bathroom. That has a Dual Vanity, Over Head Shower & Frameless Glass Doors. Additional to your Main Bedroom , you will find 3 Boasting Bedrooms all with Fan Ceilings. Spray Foam Insulation through the whole house! And Second Bathroom also Has over Head Showers & Glass Doors. Laundry Room is Ready to be connected to your Washer And Dryer, Now in Your Living & Dining Area you will find Endless Windows to View your Spectacular Back Yard! Home is Sitting on . 57 Acre , its ample lot can have endless possibilities , Back Yard has a Dual Entry. No HOA! With very low restrictions ! Great Tax Rate!

12. 2024-05-06
    status Pending 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Welcome To your Dream Home ! This Exquisite Home Offers A Modern and Contemporary Look , You will be greeted upon entry with Tall Ceilings, Custom Cabinets and Gourmet Kitchen with All Appliances to be Ready For Move In. On The Primary Suite, you will find a Large Walk -in Closet with a Full Bathroom. That has a Dual Vanity, Over Head Shower & Frameless Glass Doors. Additional to your Main Bedroom , you will find 3 Boasting Bedrooms all with Fan Ceilings. Spray Foam Insulation through the whole house! And Second Bathroom also Has over Head Showers & Glass Doors. Laundry Room is Ready to be connected to your Washer And Dryer, Now in Your Living & Dining Area you will find Endless Windows to View your Spectacular Back Yard! Home is Sitting on . 57 Acre , its ample lot can have endless possibilities , Back Yard has a Dual Entry. No HOA! With very low restrictions ! Great Tax Rate!

13. 2024-04-10
    listed $469,000 Active 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Welcome To your Dream Home ! This Exquisite Home Offers A Modern and Contemporary Look , You will be greeted upon entry with Tall Ceilings, Custom Cabinets and Gourmet Kitchen with All Appliances to be Ready For Move In. On The Primary Suite, you will find a Large Walk -in Closet with a Full Bathroom. That has a Dual Vanity, Over Head Shower & Frameless Glass Doors. Additional to your Main Bedroom , you will find 3 Boasting Bedrooms all with Fan Ceilings. Spray Foam Insulation through the whole house! And Second Bathroom also Has over Head Showers & Glass Doors. Laundry Room is Ready to be connected to your Washer And Dryer, Now in Your Living & Dining Area you will find Endless Windows to View your Spectacular Back Yard! Home is Sitting on . 57 Acre , its ample lot can have endless possibilities , Back Yard has a Dual Entry. No HOA! With very low restrictions ! Great Tax Rate!

14. 2021-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,888 · $574/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,777 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: +$890/yr (+$74/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,888
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$22,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,460
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $424,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $429,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $435,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-28 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-06 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-10 Listed $469,000 Unlock MLS
• 2021-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+53.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,888 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.