4316 Forest Park Dr · Jackson, MS 39211

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,313 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1954 0.35 ac lot Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4316 Forest Park Drive. This classic ranch-style home is conveniently located in northeast Jackson and features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and offers timeless character with cedar siding, beautiful hardwood floors, fresh paint, and an open floor plan filled with natural light from large windows throughout. The spacious and private backyard is designed for relaxing and entertaining, featuring a covered porch, extended patio, and multiple spots to unwind and enjoy the outdoors. The workshop with a window overlooking the backyard offers great storage. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, healthcare, and entertainment, this home combines comfort, charm, and an unbeatable

Key facts

• Large windows
• Covered porch
• Open floor plan

Tags

• CEDAR SIDING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with direct access; 2 carport spaces; Concrete surface; On-site storage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Fiber to the house
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Cedar construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Conventional foundation; Year built (owner provided)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Private yard; Fenced yard (chain link); Landscaped; Wooded lot; Greenhouse; Exterior storage; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; High-speed internet; Storage space; Soaking tub
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Casey Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #188 of 375 statewide, top 51%, 279 students, 100% FRL); Murrah High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #130 of 197 statewide, top 68%, 1,326 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.9% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.51%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,064
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1838 Parkridge Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+1%)	9mo	$169,900	$128	85
4272 Forest Park Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+2%)	13mo	$208,000	$155	84
4352 Ridgewood Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-1%)	15mo	$85,000	$65	79
1817 Meadowbrook Rd	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,328 (+1%)	3mo	$155,000	$117	77
4346 Manhassett Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+7%)	14mo	$205,000	$146	72
1811 Meadowbrook Rd	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,385 (+6%)	3mo	$155,000	$112	70
1621 Lockwood Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	2mo	$215,000	$146	68
4346 Ridgewood Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+6%)	22mo	$179,900	$129	64
1615 Winchester St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+4%)	16mo	$82,900	$61	52
118 Ashcot Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,502 (+14%)	6mo	$239,000	$159	51
1663 Winchester St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+8%)	15mo	$90,000	$64	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,368
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $82,749
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39211

• Rents YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $438	+0% $388	+5% $339	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $312	+0% $388	+5% $465	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $433	base $388	+0.5pp $343	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4263 Forest Park Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,949	$1.48	44d	1	0.04mi
5000 Ridgewood Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,279	$1.17	45d	1	0.97mi
20 N Hill Pkwy Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1046	$1,100	$1.05	14d	31	1.01mi
246 Eastbrooke St Jackson, MS	2.0	2.0	1777	$2,750	$1.55	44d	1	1.08mi
212 Pimlico Pl Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$900	$0.56	14d	1	1.20mi
1855 Lakeland Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	2.0	1173	$2,362	$2.01	24d	1	1.23mi
4901 McWillie Cir Jackson, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,150	$1.43	14d	1	1.24mi
4627 Estelle Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,475	$0.99	24d	1	1.33mi
5155 Wayneland Dr Jackson, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$1,500	$1.66	24d	1	1.38mi
5301 Ridgewood Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,850	$1.25	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $175,000 Active
2. 2002-10-04
   soldstatus
3. 1996-09-20
   soldstatus
4. 1978-12-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$466
• After-tax cash flow: $4,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 23,838
• Household income: $69,426
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 736.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.99%
• Current HPI: 145.5192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $175,000 MLSU
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.