12880 4th · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95423

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 1985 5,227 sqft lot $111/sqft · 20% below area Est $186k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Delightful Home on with a fenced yard. This home is a 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home. Primary Bedroom with bath that has a large soaking tub and shower. Additional bonus rooms accessible from the primary bedroom and the enclosed patio could be used as an office, hobby room or additional storage. Recent upgrades include a replaced heating system and energy-efficient vinyl windows, adding to the home's overall value and appeal. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy both indoor comfort and outdoor space in a charming setting.

Key facts

• Large soaking tub
• Fenced yard
• Bonus rooms

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• LARGE SOAKING TUB
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT VINYL WINDOWS
• BONUS ROOMS
• ENCLOSED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $149k implies a 645% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.56%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,991
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -14.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,790
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $14,866
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $679/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $296	+0% $253	+5% $211	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $174	+0% $253	+5% $332	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $328	-0.5pp $291	base $253	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12755 Blue Heron Ct Clearlake Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,000	$1.76	44d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $149,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $159,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Delightful Home on with a fenced yard. This home is a 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home. Primary Bedroom with bath that has a large soaking tub and shower. Additional bonus rooms accessible from the primary bedroom and the enclosed patio could be used as an office, hobby room or additional storage. Recent upgrades include a replaced heating system and energy-efficient vinyl windows, adding to the home's overall value and appeal. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy both indoor comfort and outdoor space in a charming setting.

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $159,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Delightful Home on with a fenced yard. This home is a 2 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home. Primary Bedroom with bath that has a large soaking tub and shower. Additional bonus rooms accessible from the primary bedroom and the enclosed patio could be used as an office, hobby room or additional storage. Recent upgrades include a replaced heating system and energy-efficient vinyl windows, adding to the home's overall value and appeal. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy both indoor comfort and outdoor space in a charming setting.

20. 1992-05-26
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$454/yr (+$38/mo · 66.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$679
• − Insurance: −$5,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+695.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $159,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $159,000 CRMLS
• 1992-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $679 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.