468 Houston Ln · Tropical Park, FL 32953

$279,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Townhouse · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

We're excited to introduce Banyan Point, our newest townhome community in Merritt Island, Florida - designed for modern living and perfectly positioned near the best of the Space Coast. The featured Pearson floorplan offers three bedrooms, two and a half baths, a one-car garage, and 1,463 square feet of thoughtfully designed space. The open-concept kitchen, dining, and living areas flow seamlessly onto a private patio, creating the perfect setting for gatherings and everyday living. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and double vanity bath, while two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed bathroom, ideal for family or guests. A convenient upstairs laundry spa

Key facts

• Private patio
• Pearson floorplan
• Garage

Tags

• PEARSON FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY SPACE
• SMART STORAGE SOLUTIONS
• ENERGY EFFICIENT DESIGN
• HISTORIC COCOA VILLAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $279,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family property (Pearson Interior Unit)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,464

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths and 1 half bath (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Active listing (Spec build, Pearson Interior Unit plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $279k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-130/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. Melbourne Elementary School For Science (math 88% / reading 86%, grade A+, #24 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 549 students, 18% FRL); Thomas Jefferson Middle School (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 608 students, 43% FRL); Merritt Island High School (math 32% / reading 55%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 1,546 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,105 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-48,026
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,274
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32953

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,525

Max offer price $277,432

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $86	+0% $-11	+5% $-107	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-110	+0% $-11	+5% $88	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $60	base $-11	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1527 Schoolhouse St Unit A3 Merritt Island, FL	2.0	1.0	1695	$1,350	$0.80	25d	1	0.13mi
360 Schoolhouse Ln Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	953	$1,500	$1.57	25d	1	0.21mi
1795 Dogwood Dr Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$3,500	$1.99	16d	1	0.38mi
295 Spruce Ave Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$3,500	$2.31	25d	1	0.48mi
295 Spruce Ave Unit 1526854P Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1506	$4,370	$2.90	21d	1	0.48mi
10 Bogart Pl Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.5	1376	$2,350	$1.71	25d	1	0.53mi
43 Bogart Pl Merritt Island, FL	2.0	1.5	1172	$1,875	$1.60	25d	1	0.60mi
48 Bogart Pl Merritt Island, FL	2.0	1.5	1184	$1,800	$1.52	25d	1	0.62mi
1155 N Courtenay Pkwy Merritt Island, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,434	$1.91	25d	1	0.66mi
1525 Polaris St Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,400	$1.64	16d	1	0.86mi
165 Tiki Dr Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1795	$2,875	$1.60	25d	1	1.18mi
100 Summer Pl #8 Merritt Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,500	$2.41	25d	1	1.19mi
800 1st St Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,800	$1.83	25d	1	1.27mi
650 Parkside Ave Merritt Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$1,950	$1.40	25d	1	1.27mi
2610 Via Napoli Ct Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$2,400	$2.14	16d	1	1.33mi
437 Via Palermo Ct Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,175	$1.58	25d	1	1.35mi
215 Richland Ave Unit 1044313P Merritt Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$4,648	$3.93	16d	1	1.45mi
50 Needle Blvd #28 Merritt Island, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,550	$1.72	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $279,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained living space with potential for further value increases through minor exterior updates and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Adding smart home features — Can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tropical Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tropical Park, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,759
• Household income: $87,262
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 849.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.76%
• Current HPI: 320.1966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B